Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28343409›Full record

ArticleJournal of neurotrauma2017

Development of a Prediction Model for Post-Concussive Symptoms following Mild Traumatic Brain Injury: A TRACK-TBI Pilot Study.

Maryse C Cnossen, Ethan A Winkler, John K Yue, David O Okonkwo, Alex B Valadka, Ewout W Steyerberg, Hester F Lingsma, Geoffrey T Manley, TRACK-TBI Investigators

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of neurotrauma, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 58 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
58citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
8.5field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

58 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 116 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Guideline
  3. Impact of routine use of the GFAP and UCH-L1 TBI blood test for management of mild TBI on patient care in a European emergency department.European journal of trauma and emergency surgery : official publication of the European Trauma Society · 2026
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  11. Comparison of Machine Learning Models in Predicting Mental Health Sequelae Following Concussion in Youth.AMIA Joint Summits on Translational Science proceedings. AMIA Joint Summits on Translational Science · 2025
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  12. Review
  13. Observational
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Maryse C CnossenCenter for Medical Decision Making, Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Ethan A WinklerDepartment of Neurological Surgery, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California.
John K YueDepartment of Neurological Surgery, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California.
David O OkonkwoDepartment of Neurological Surgery, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Alex B ValadkaDepartment of Neurological Surgery, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia.
Ewout W SteyerbergCenter for Medical Decision Making, Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Hester F LingsmaCenter for Medical Decision Making, Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Geoffrey T ManleyDepartment of Neurological Surgery, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California.
TRACK-TBI Investigators
Erasmus MC · NLNeurological Surgery · USUniversity of California, San Francisco · USVirginia Commonwealth University · US

Funding

Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain InjuryU01NS086090 · NINDS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI DIAZ-ARRASTIA, RAMON, GIACINO, JOSEPH THOMAS · 2013 to 2017
$19.1M
NINDS NIH HHS U01 NS086090
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Post-concussive symptoms occur frequently after mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) and may be categorized as cognitive, somatic, or emotional. We aimed to: 1) assess whether patient demographics and clinical variables predict development of each of these three symptom categories, and 2) develop a prediction model for 6-month post-concussive symptoms. Patients with mTBI (Glasgow Coma Scale score 13-15) from the prospective multi-center Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury (TRACK-TBI) Pilot study (2010-2012) who completed the Rivermead Post Concussion Symptoms Questionnaire (RPQ) at 6 months post-injury were included. Linear regression was utilized to determine the predictive value of candidate predictors for cognitive, somatic, and emotional subscales individually, as well as the overall RPQ. The final prediction model was developed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator shrinkage and bootstrap validation. We included 277 mTBI patients (70% male; median age 42 years). No major differences in the predictive value of our set of predictors existed for the cognitive, somatic, and emotional subscales, and therefore one prediction model for the RPQ total scale was developed. Years of education, pre-injury psychiatric disorders, and prior TBI were the strongest predictors of 6-month post-concussive symptoms. The total set of predictors explained 21% of the variance, which decreased to 14% after bootstrap validation. Demographic and clinical variables at baseline are predictive of 6-month post-concussive symptoms following mTBI; however, these variables explain less than one-fifth of the total variance in outcome. Model refinement with larger datasets, more granular variables, and objective biomarkers are needed before implementation in clinical practice.

Indexed as

post-concussion symptomsprediction modeltraumatic brain injury

Identifiers

PMID28343409
PMCPMC7647929
OpenAlexW2600102011

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.