ArticleTobacco control2018
The effect of excise tax increases on cigarette prices in South Africa.
Article in Tobacco control, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Tobacco industry pricing strategies in response to excise tax policies: a systematic review.Tobacco control · 2023Pooled it
- Estimating the cost of not setting the Health Promotion Levy at 20% in South Africa: an extended cost-effectiveness analysis.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Pricing strategies of the tobacco companies in response to cigarette excise tax increases in Montenegro.PloS one · 2026Article
- Making cigarette taxes more effective in Mozambique: A simulation analysis using the Tobacco Excise Tax Simulation Model (TETSiM).PloS one · 2026Article
- Assessing changes in non-alcoholic sugary beverage prices in Agincourt following South Africa's Health Promotion Levy: A pre- and post-implementation study.Journal of public health research · 2025Article
- How does the e-cigarette industry respond to tax adjustments? Evidence from China.Tobacco induced diseases · 2024Article
- Tobacco industry pricing strategies for single cigarettes and multistick packs after excise tax increases in Colombia.Tobacco control · 2023Article
- An exploration of stakeholder views and perceptions on taxing tobacco, alcohol and sugar-sweetened beverages in Ghana.BMJ global health · 2023Review
- When Cigarette Sales Suddenly Become Illegal: Evidence From an Online Survey of South African Smokers During COVID-19 Lockdown.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2023Article
- Article
- Equity impact of minimum unit pricing of alcohol on household health and finances among rich and poor drinkers in South Africa.BMJ global health · 2022Article
- Estimating the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes in South Africa using the Deaton approach.BMJ open · 2021Article
- Population-level interventions targeting risk factors of diabetes and hypertension in South Africa: a document review.BMC public health · 2021Review
- Modelling the expected impact of cigarette tax and price increases under Vietnam's excise tax law 2015-2020.Tobacco control · 2021Article
- Planning for tomorrow: global cancer incidence and the role of prevention 2020-2070.Nature reviews. Clinical oncology · 2021Review
- Questioning the regressivity of tobacco taxes: a distributional accounting impact model of increased tobacco taxation.Tobacco control · 2021Article
- Smoking cessation advice and quit attempts in South Africa between 2007 and 2017: A cross-sectional study.Tobacco induced diseases · 2021Article
- Size matters: An analysis of cigarette pack sizes across 23 European Union countries using Euromonitor data, 2006 to 2017.PloS one · 2020Article
- The effects of price and non-price policies on cigarette consumption in South Africa.Tobacco induced diseases · 2020Article
- Generating revenue by raising tobacco taxes in Latin America and the Caribbean.Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionThe effectiveness of excise tax increases as a tool for reducing tobacco consumption depends largely on how the tax increases impact the retail price. We estimate this relationship in South Africa for 2001-2015. DATA: Statistics South Africa provided disaggregated cigarette price data, used in the calculation of the Consumers' Price Index. Data on the excise tax per cigarette were obtained from Budget Reviews prepared by the National Treasury of South Africa.
methodsRegression equations were estimated for each month. The month-on-month change in cigarette prices in February through April was regressed against March's excise tax change to estimate the pass-through coefficient. For the other 9 months, the month-on-month change in cigarette price was regressed against monthly dummy variables to determine the size of the non-tax-related price increase in each of these months. The analysis was performed in both nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) terms.
findingsExpressed in real terms, the excise tax was undershifted. A R1.00 (one rand) increase in the excise tax is associated with an increase in the retail price of cigarettes of R0.90 in the pre-2010 period, and R0.49 in the post-2010 period. In the pre-2010 period, the tobacco industry increased the retail price of cigarettes in July/August, independent of the excise tax increase. The discretionary July/August price increases largely disappeared after 2010, primarily because the market became more competitive.
conclusionThe degree of excise tax pass-through, and the magnitude of discretionary increases in cigarette prices, is significantly determined by the competitive environment in the cigarette market.
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