Predicting first trimester pregnancy outcome: derivation of a multiple marker test.

objectiveTo predict first trimester pregnancy outcome using biomarkers in a multicenter cohort.

designCase-control study.

settingThree academic centers. PATIENT(S): Women with pain and bleeding in early pregnancy. INTERVENTION(S): Sera from women who were 5-12 weeks' gestational age with ectopic pregnancy (EP), viable intrauterine pregnancy (IUP), and miscarriage/spontaneous abortion (SAB) was analyzed by ELISA and immunoassay for activin A, inhibin A, P, A Disintegrin And Metalloprotease-12, pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A), pregnancy specific B MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Area under receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of first trimester pregnancy outcome. RESULT(S): In 230 pregnancies, the combination of trees to maximize sensitivity and specificity resulted in 73% specificity (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65-0.80) and 31% sensitivity (95% CI 0.21-0.43) for viability. Similar methods had 21% sensitivity (95% CI 0.12-0.32) and 33% specificity (95% CI 0.26-0.41) for location. Activin A, Glyc, and A Disintegrin And Metalloprotease-12 definitively classified pregnancy location in 29% of the sample with 100% accuracy for EP. Progesterone and PAPP-A classified the viability in 61% of the sample with 94% accuracy. CONCLUSION(S): Multiple marker panels can distinguish pregnancy location and viability in a subset of women at risk for early pregnancy complications. This strategy of combining markers to maximize sensitivity and specificity results in high accuracy in a subset of subjects. Activin A, ADAM12, and Glyc are the most promising markers for pregnancy location; P and PAPP-A for viability.