ArticleSexually transmitted infections2017
Estimating prevalence trends in adult gonorrhoea and syphilis in low- and middle-income countries with the Spectrum-STI model: results for Zimbabwe and Morocco from 1995 to 2016.
Article in Sexually transmitted infections, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 40 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prevalence and epidemiological patterns of Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection in sub-Saharan Africa, 1964-2025: Systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions.PLoS medicine · 2026Pooled it
- Prevalence and epidemiological patterns of Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection in Canada, 1969-2025: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC public health · 2026Pooled it
- Epidemiology of gonorrhea in countries of the Middle East and North Africa: systematic review, meta analyses, and meta regressions.BMC global and public health · 2024Pooled it
- Epidemiology of gonorrhoea: systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions, World Health Organization European Region, 1949 to 2021.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024Pooled it
- Trends and Predictors of Syphilis Prevalence in the General Population: Global Pooled Analyses of 1103 Prevalence Measures Including 136 Million Syphilis Tests.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2018Pooled it
- Identifying youth at high risk for sexually transmitted infections in community-based settings using a risk prediction tool: a validation study.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Trial
- Estimating the Value of Novel Tests for Active Syphilis in Zimbabwe: How Much Overtreatment Can Be Avoided?Sexually transmitted diseases · 2026Article
- Prevalence of chlamydia, gonorrhoea, and trichomoniasis among male and female general populations in sub-Saharan Africa from 2000 to 2024: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis.EClinicalMedicine · 2025Article
- Prevalence of chlamydia, gonorrhoea, and trichomoniasis among male and female general populations in sub-Saharan Africa from 2000-2024: A systematic review and meta-regression analysis.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Syphilis infection prevalence in the Middle East and North Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.EClinicalMedicine · 2024Article
- Understanding dynamics and overlapping epidemiologies of HIV, HSV-2, chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis in sexual networks of men who have sex with men.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Article
- Factors associated with sexually transmitted infections among care-seeking adults in the African Cohort Study.BMC public health · 2021Article
- A Comparative Study of the Epidemiology of Treponemal Infection in the Volta and Oti Regions of Ghana: A Five-Year Multisite Parallel Population-Based Analysis vis-à-vis the Sentinel Survey.BioMed research international · 2021Article
- Serological Markers for Syphilis Among Persons Presenting With Syndromes Associated With Sexually Transmitted Infections: Results From the Zimbabwe STI Etiology Study.Sexually transmitted diseases · 2019Article
- Decline in the seroprevalence of syphilis markers among first-time blood donors in Libreville (Gabon) between 2004 and 2016.BMC public health · 2019Article
- Global burden of maternal and congenital syphilis and associated adverse birth outcomes-Estimates for 2016 and progress since 2012.PloS one · 2019Article
- Syphilis prevalence trends in adult women in 132 countries - estimations using the Spectrum Sexually Transmitted Infections model.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Adult female syphilis prevalence, congenital syphilis case incidence and adverse birth outcomes, Mongolia 2000-2016: Estimates using the Spectrum STI tool.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2018Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
13 authors at 6 institutions in 6 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo develop a tool for estimating national trends in adult prevalence of sexually transmitted infections by low- and middle-income countries, using standardised, routinely collected programme indicator data.
methodsThe Spectrum-STI model fits time trends in the prevalence of active syphilis through logistic regression on prevalence data from antenatal clinic-based surveys, routine antenatal screening and general population surveys where available, weighting data by their national coverage and representativeness. Gonorrhoea prevalence was fitted as a moving average on population surveys (from the country, neighbouring countries and historic regional estimates), with trends informed additionally by urethral discharge case reports, where these were considered to have reasonably stable completeness. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, high-risk populations not sampled, urban/rural and male/female prevalence ratios, using WHO's assumptions from latest global and regional-level estimations. Uncertainty intervals were obtained by bootstrap resampling.
resultsEstimated syphilis prevalence (in men and women) declined from 1.9% (95% CI 1.1% to 3.4%) in 2000 to 1.5% (1.3% to 1.8%) in 2016 in Zimbabwe, and from 1.5% (0.76% to 1.9%) to 0.55% (0.30% to 0.93%) in Morocco. At these time points, gonorrhoea estimates for women aged 15-49 years were 2.5% (95% CI 1.1% to 4.6%) and 3.8% (1.8% to 6.7%) in Zimbabwe; and 0.6% (0.3% to 1.1%) and 0.36% (0.1% to 1.0%) in Morocco, with male gonorrhoea prevalences 14% lower than female prevalence.
conclusionsThis epidemiological framework facilitates data review, validation and strategic analysis, prioritisation of data collection needs and surveillance strengthening by national experts. We estimated ongoing syphilis declines in both Zimbabwe and Morocco. For gonorrhoea, time trends were less certain, lacking recent population-based surveys.
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