ArticleAIDS (London, England)2017
Joint estimation of CD4+ cell progression and survival in untreated individuals with HIV-1 infection.
Article in AIDS (London, England), 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed.
- The Implications of HIV-1 Subtypes on Pathogenesis, Reservoirs and Cure Strategies.Current HIV/AIDS reports · 2026Review
- Evaluating the impact of achieving cascade equality in Eswatini: a modeling study on the prevention impacts of antiretroviral therapy.AIDS (London, England) · 2026Article
- Modeling the Public Health Impact of Improved Antiretroviral Therapy Restart Patterns Among People with HIV Who Have Discontinued Treatment.Journal of health economics and outcomes research · 2026Article
- Epidemiological impacts and cost-effectiveness of daily and on-demand oral pre-exposure prophylaxis among key HIV populations in China: An economic evaluation.Epidemiology and infection · 2025Article
- Assessing the Benefits of Rapid Start Antiretroviral Therapy for Newly Diagnosed People with HIV in the United States.Advances in therapy · 2025Article
- US cost-utility model of lenacapavir plus optimized background regimen (OBR) vs fostemsavir plus OBR and ibalizumab plus OBR for people with HIV with multidrug resistance.Journal of managed care & specialty pharmacy · 2024Article
- Measuring progress towards reaching zero new HIV acquisitions among key populations in Québec (Canada) using routine surveillance data: a mathematical modelling study.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2022Article
- Prognosis of high-risk human papillomavirus-related cervical lesions: A hidden Markov model analysis of a single-center cohort in Japan.Cancer medicine · 2022Article
- Evaluating whole HIV-1 genome sequence for estimation of incidence and migration in a rural South African community.Wellcome open research · 2022Article
- Disease progression and mortality with untreated HIV infection: evidence synthesis of HIV seroconverter cohorts, antiretroviral treatment clinical cohorts and population-based survey data.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2021Article
- Subtype-specific differences in transmission cluster dynamics of HIV-1 B and CRF01_AE in New South Wales, Australia.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2021Article
- The potential impact of urine-LAM diagnostics on tuberculosis incidence and mortality: A modelling analysis.PLoS medicine · 2020Article
- Mapping the Current and Future Noncommunicable Disease Burden in Kenya by Human Immunodeficiency Virus Status: A Modeling Study.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2020Article
- Modelling immune deterioration, immune recovery and state-specific duration of HIV-infected women with viral load adjustment: using parametric multistate model.BMC public health · 2020Article
- The impact of scaling up cervical cancer screening and treatment services among women living with HIV in Kenya: a modelling study.BMJ global health · 2020Article
- Estimating HIV incidence from surveillance data indicates a second wave of infections in Brazil.Epidemics · 2019Article
- Developing a dynamic HIV transmission model for 6 U.S. cities: An evidence synthesis.PloS one · 2019Article
- Article
- The growing burden of noncommunicable disease among persons living with HIV in Zimbabwe.AIDS (London, England) · 2018Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveWe compiled the largest dataset of seroconverter cohorts to date from 25 countries across Africa, North America, Europe, and Southeast/East (SE/E) Asia to simultaneously estimate transition rates between CD4 cell stages and death, in antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive HIV-1-infected individuals.
designA hidden Markov model incorporating a misclassification matrix was used to represent natural short-term fluctuations and measurement errors in CD4 cell counts. Covariates were included to estimate the transition rates and survival probabilities for each subgroup.
resultsThe median follow-up time for 16 373 eligible individuals was 4.1 years (interquartile range 1.7-7.1), and the mean age at seroconversion was 31.1 years (SD 8.8). A total of 14 525 individuals had recorded CD4 cell counts pre-ART, 1885 died, and 6947 initiated ART. Median (interquartile range) survival for men aged 20 years at seroconversion was 13.0 (12.4-13.4), 11.6 (10.9-12.3), and 8.3 years (7.9-8.9) in Europe/North America, Africa, and SE/E Asia, respectively. Mortality rates increase with age (hazard ratio 2.22, 95% confidence interval 1.84-2.67 for >45 years compared with <25 years) and vary by region (hazard ratio 2.68, 1.75-4.12 for Africa and 1.88, 1.50-2.35 for Asia compared with Europe/North America). CD4 cell decline was significantly faster in Asian cohorts compared with Europe/North America (hazard ratio 1.45, 1.36-1.54).
conclusionMortality and CD4 cell progression rates exhibited regional and age-specific differences, with decreased survival in African and SE/E Asian cohorts compared with Europe/North America and in older age groups. This extensive dataset reveals heterogeneities between regions and ages, which should be incorporated into future HIV models.
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