ArticleAIDS (London, England)2017
Improving estimates of children living with HIV from the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model.
Article in AIDS (London, England), 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
37 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 62 citations in OpenAlex.
- HIV-related mortality time trends among children and young adolescents on antiretroviral therapy by age, treatment duration, and region: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis.The lancet. HIV · 2025Pooled it
- Probability of vertical HIV transmission: a systematic review and meta-regression.The lancet. HIV · 2025Pooled it
- Incorporating human dynamic populations in models of infectious disease transmission: a systematic review.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Pooled it
- DELIVER: A Safety Study of a Dapivirine Vaginal Ring and Oral PrEP for the Prevention of HIV During Pregnancy.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2024Trial
- Progress and challenges towards eliminating vertical transmission of HIV in India.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Lower Prevalence Countries Outside of South-Eastern Africa Now Have the Fastest Growing HIV Epidemic.Open forum infectious diseases · 2024Review
- Article
- Health-related quality of life among children/adolescents living with HIV/AIDS in Lagos State, Nigeria.African health sciences · 2023Article
- Article
- Augmenting progress on the elimination of vertical transmissions of HIV in India: Insights from Spectrum-based HIV burden estimations.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Trends and effects of antiretroviral therapy coverage during pregnancy on mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa. Evidence from panel data analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019.The lancet. HIV · 2021Article
- Global HIV mortality trends among children on antiretroviral treatment corrected for under-reported deaths: an updated analysis of the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS collaboration.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2021Article
- Refining global HIV estimates for decision-making: advances in analytic and modelling methods used by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2021Article
- Estimating the burden of pediatric HIV in an 'A' category district in India: an epidemiological study.BMC pediatrics · 2021Article
- Improving Sampling Efficiency for Determining Pediatric HIV Prevalence in National Surveys: Evidence From 8 Sub-Saharan African Countries.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2021Article
- Improving Methods to Classify Perinatal versus Nonperinatal HIV Acquisition in Young Adolescents 10-14 Years of Age.The Pediatric infectious disease journal · 2021Article
- Accelerating progress towards the elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV: a narrative review.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2020Review
- International epidemiology databases to evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) in sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2019.BMJ open · 2020Article
- Estimates of the global population of children who are HIV-exposed and uninfected, 2000-18: a modelling study.The Lancet. Global health · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 1 institution in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveEstimated numbers of children living with HIV determine programmatic and treatment needs. We explain the changes made to the UNAIDS estimates between 2015 and 2016, and describe the challenges around these estimates.
methodsEstimates of children newly infected, living with HIV, and dying of AIDS are developed by country teams using Spectrum software. Spectrum files are available for 160 countries, which represent 98% of the global population. In 2016, the methods were updated to reflect the latest evidence on mother-to-child HIV transmission and improved assumptions on the age children initiate antiretroviral therapy. We report updated results using the 2016 model and validate these estimates against mother-to-child transmission rates and HIV prevalence from population-based surveys for the survey year.
resultsThe revised 2016 model estimates 27% fewer children living with HIV in 2014 than the 2015 model, primarily due to changes in the probability of mother-to-child transmission among women with incident HIV during pregnancy. The revised estimates were consistent with population-based surveys of HIV transmission and HIV prevalence among children aged 5-9 years, but were lower than surveys among children aged 10-14 years.
conclusionsThe revised 2016 model is an improvement on previous models. Paediatric HIV models will continue to evolve as further improvements are made to the assumptions. Commodities forecasting and programme planning rely on these estimates, and increasing accuracy will be critical to enable effective scale-up and optimal use of resources. Efforts are needed to improve empirical measures of HIV prevalence, incidence, and mortality among children.
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