ArticleInfluenza and other respiratory viruses2017
Rethinking thresholds for serological evidence of influenza virus infection.
Article in Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Serological evidence of substantial respiratory syncytial virus infection burden among older adults residing in Swedish long-term care facilities.BMC medicine · 2026Article
- Using SARS-CoV-2 nucleoprotein antibodies to detect (re)infection.Epidemiology and infection · 2025Article
- Serodynamics: A primer and synthetic review of methods for epidemiological inference using serological data.Epidemics · 2024Review
- M2-Deficient Single-Replication Influenza Vaccine-Induced Immune Responses Associated With Protection Against Human Challenge With Highly Drifted H3N2 Influenza Strain.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Model-based assessment of Chikungunya and O'nyong-nyong virus circulation in Mali in a serological cross-reactivity context.Nature communications · 2021Article
- Effects of Accounting for Interval-Censored Antibody Titer Decay on Seroincidence in a Longitudinal Cohort Study of Leptospirosis.American journal of epidemiology · 2021Article
- Seroepidemiologic Study Designs for Determining SARS-COV-2 Transmission and Immunity.Emerging infectious diseases · 2020Article
- An open source tool to infer epidemiological and immunological dynamics from serological data: serosolver.PLoS computational biology · 2020Article
- Antibody levels in a cohort of pregnant women after the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic: Waning and association with self-reported severity and duration of illness.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2019Article
- Risk of pregnancy complications and adverse birth outcomes after maternal A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza: a Norwegian population-based cohort study.BMC infectious diseases · 2018Article
- Rethinking thresholds for serological evidence of influenza virus infection.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2017Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
introductionFor pathogens such as influenza that cause many subclinical cases, serologic data can be used to estimate attack rates and the severity of an epidemic in near real time. Current methods for analysing serologic data tend to rely on use of a simple threshold or comparison of titres between pre- and post-epidemic, which may not accurately reflect actual infection rates.
methodsWe propose a method for quantifying infection rates using paired sera and bivariate probit models to evaluate the accuracy of thresholds currently used for influenza epidemics with low and high existing herd immunity levels, and a subsequent non-influenza period. Pre- and post-epidemic sera were taken from a cohort of adults in Singapore (n=838). Bivariate probit models with latent titre levels were fit to the joint distribution of haemagglutination-inhibition assay-determined antibody titres using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation.
resultsEstimated attack rates were 15% (95% credible interval: 12%-19%) for the first H1N1 pandemic wave. For a large outbreak due to a new strain, a threshold of 1:20 and a twofold rise (if pared sera is available) would result in a more accurate estimate of incidence.
conclusionThe approach presented here offers the basis for a reconsideration of methods used to assess diagnostic tests by both reconsidering the thresholds used and by analysing serological data with a novel statistical model.
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