ArticleEpidemics2017
Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: a comparison of predictions from three transmission models.
Article in Epidemics, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers.
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Who cites it
33 citing papers in PubMed, 59 citations in OpenAlex.
- Targeting environmental determinants and settlements in public health planning for the containment of visceral leishmaniasis: a One Health perspective.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Spatial variation in time to diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis in Bihar, India.BMC global and public health · 2025Article
- Global, regional, and national burden of Visceral leishmaniasis, 1990-2021: findings from the global burden of disease study 2021.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
- The Hidden Hand of Asymptomatic Infection Hinders Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Modeling Analysis.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024Article
- Knowledge, Attitude, and Practices among HIV/Leishmaniasis Co-Infected Patients in Bihar, India.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2022Article
- Challenges of using modelling evidence in the visceral leishmaniasis elimination programme in India.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Antibody and Antigen Prevalence as Indicators of Ongoing Transmission or Elimination of Visceral Leishmaniasis: A Modeling Study.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
- Mathematical modelling of the use of insecticide-treated nets for elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in Bihar, India.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
- First Evidence from Sri Lanka for Subphenotypic Diversity withinBioMed research international · 2021Article
- Towards a Sustainable Vector-Control Strategy in the Post Kala-Azar Elimination Era.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2021Review
- Xenodiagnosis to evaluate the infectiousness of humans to sandflies in an area endemic for visceral leishmaniasis in Bihar, India: a transmission-dynamics study.The Lancet. Microbe · 2021Article
- Inferring transmission trees to guide targeting of interventions against visceral leishmaniasis and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020Article
- The potential impact of human visceral leishmaniasis vaccines on population incidence.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Article
- A spatio-temporal approach to short-term prediction of visceral leishmaniasis diagnoses in India.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Article
- Impact of Changes in Detection Effort on Control of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian Subcontinent.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Assessing the combined effects of household type and insecticide effectiveness for kala-azar vector control using indoor residual spraying: a case study from North Bihar, India.Parasites & vectors · 2019Article
- Post-Kala-Azar Dermal Leishmaniasis as a Reservoir for Visceral Leishmaniasis Transmission.Trends in parasitology · 2019Article
- "It's just a fever": Gender based barriers to care-seeking for visceral leishmaniasis in highly endemic districts of India: A qualitative study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Article
- Cinnamomum cassia exhibits antileishmanial activity against Leishmania donovani infection in vitro and in vivo.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Article
- Trends in Recently EmergedBioMed research international · 2019Article
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Authors and funding
15 authors at 5 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We present three transmission models of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent (ISC) with structural differences regarding the disease stage that provides the main contribution to transmission, including models with a prominent role of asymptomatic infection, and fit them to recent case data from 8 endemic districts in Bihar, India. Following a geographical cross-validation of the models, we compare their predictions for achieving the WHO VL elimination targets with ongoing treatment and vector control strategies. All the transmission models suggest that the WHO elimination target (<1 new VL case per 10,000 capita per year at sub-district level) is likely to be met in Bihar, India, before or close to 2020 in sub-districts with a pre-control incidence of 10 VL cases per 10,000 people per year or less, when current intervention levels (60% coverage of indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide and a delay of 40days from onset of symptoms to treatment (OT)) are maintained, given the accuracy and generalizability of the existing data regarding incidence and IRS coverage. In settings with a pre-control endemicity level of 5/10,000, increasing the effective IRS coverage from 60 to 80% is predicted to lead to elimination of VL 1-3 years earlier (depending on the particular model), and decreasing OT from 40 to 20days to bring elimination forward by approximately 1year. However, in all instances the models suggest that L. donovani transmission will continue after 2020 and thus that surveillance and control measures need to remain in place until the longer-term aim of breaking transmission is achieved.
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