Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28279456›Full record

ArticleEpidemics2017

Probabilistic forecasts of trachoma transmission at the district level: A statistical model comparison.

Amy Pinsent, Fengchen Liu, Michael Deiner, Paul Emerson, Ana Bhaktiari, Travis C Porco, Thomas Lietman, Manoj Gambhir

Abstract readComparative Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Epidemics, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Forecasting Trachoma Control and Identifying Transmission-Hotspots.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Models of Trachoma Transmission and Their Policy Implications: From Control to Elimination.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2018
    Review
  9. Counting Down the 2020 Goals for 9 Neglected Tropical Diseases: What Have We Learned From Quantitative Analysis and Transmission Modeling?Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2018
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Amy PinsentDepartment of Public Health and Preventative Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia. Electronic address: amy.pinsent@monash.edu.
Fengchen LiuF.I. Proctor Foundation, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Michael DeinerF.I. Proctor Foundation, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA; Department of Ophthalmology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Paul EmersonInternational Trachoma Initiative, Atlanta, GA, USA; School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Ana BhaktiariInternational Trachoma Initiative, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Travis C PorcoF.I. Proctor Foundation, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA; Department of Ophthalmology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Thomas LietmanF.I. Proctor Foundation, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA; Department of Ophthalmology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA; Global Health Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Manoj GambhirDepartment of Public Health and Preventative Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.

Funding

Forecasting Trachoma Control - Diversity SupplementR01EY025350 · NEI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI THOMAS M LIETMAN, Travis Christian Porco · 2016 to 2026
$3.3M
"Modeling contact investigation and rapid response"U01GM087728 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI PORCO, TRAVIS CHRISTIAN · 2011 to 2015
$2.2M
NEI NIH HHS R01 EY025350NIGMS NIH HHS U01 GM087728
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The World Health Organization and its partners are aiming to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem by 2020. In this study, we compare forecasts of TF prevalence in 2011 for 7 different statistical and mechanistic models across 9 de-identified trachoma endemic districts, representing 4 unique trachoma endemic countries. We forecast TF prevalence between 1-6 years ahead in time and compare the 7 different models to the observed 2011 data using a log-likelihood score. An SIS model, including a district-specific random effect for the district-specific transmission coefficient, had the highest log-likelihood score across all 9 districts and was therefore the best performing model. While overall the deterministic transmission model was the least well performing model, although it did comparably well to the other models for 8 of 9 districts. We perform a statistically rigorous comparison of the forecasting ability of a range of mathematical and statistical models across multiple endemic districts between 1 and 6 years ahead of the last collected TF prevalence data point in 2011, assessing results against surveillance data. This study is a step towards making statements about likelihood and time to elimination with regard to the WHO GET2020 goals.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalForecastingHumansPrevalenceTrachomaEliminationForecastingModel comparisonTrachoma

Identifiers

PMID28279456
PMCPMC5340843

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.