ArticleEpidemics2017
Modelling the elimination of river blindness using long-term epidemiological and programmatic data from Mali and Senegal.
Article in Epidemics, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 41 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
41 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) with long-term ivermectin mass drug administration with or without vector control in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.The Lancet. Global health · 2024Pooled it
- Economic evaluations of onchocerciasis interventions: a systematic review and research needs.Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH · 2019Pooled it
- Strategies for tackling Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis: A systematic review and comparison of transmission models, including an assessment of the wider Taeniidae family transmission models.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Pooled it
- Comparison of Repeated Doses of Ivermectin Versus Ivermectin Plus Albendazole for the Treatment of Onchocerciasis: A Randomized, Open-label, Clinical Trial.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2020Trial
- Macrofilaricidal Efficacy of Repeated Doses of Ivermectin for the Treatment of River Blindness.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2017Trial
- Modelling anti-Ov16 seroprevalence for the control and elimination of onchocerciasis.Nature communications · 2026Article
- HISTONCHO: A dataset of intervention histories for onchocerciasis control & elimination in sub-Saharan Africa.Scientific data · 2026Article
- Modelling transmission thresholds and hypoendemic stability for onchocerciasis elimination.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Status of human onchocerciasis transmission in the Adamaoua region of Cameroon after 20 years of ivermectin mass distribution.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Can mass drug administration of moxidectin accelerate onchocerciasis elimination in Africa?Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2023Article
- A Phase-I pharmacokinetic, safety and food-effect study on flubentylosin, a novel analog of Tylosin-A having potent anti-Wolbachia and antifilarial activity.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Demographic patterns of human antibody levels to Simulium damnosum s.l. saliva in onchocerciasis-endemic areas: An indicator of exposure to vector bites.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Onchocerciasis drug development: from preclinical models to humans.Parasitology research · 2021Review
- Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Human immune response against salivary antigens of Simulium damnosum s.l.: A new epidemiological marker for exposure to blackfly bites in onchocerciasis endemic areas.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Serological Evaluation of Onchocerciasis and Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination in the Bakoye and Falémé Foci, Mali.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
- Lessons learned for surveillance strategies for trachoma elimination as a public health problem, from the evaluation of approaches utilised by Guinea worm and onchocerciasis programmes: A literature review.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Review
- An Overview of the Management of Mansonellosis.Research and reports in tropical medicine · 2021Review
- Structural Uncertainty in Onchocerciasis Transmission Models Influences the Estimation of Elimination Thresholds and Selection of Age Groups for Seromonitoring.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Designing antifilarial drug trials using clinical trial simulators.Nature communications · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The onchocerciasis transmission models EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM have been independently developed and used to explore the feasibility of eliminating onchocerciasis from Africa with mass (annual or biannual) distribution of ivermectin within the timeframes proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and endorsed by the 2012 London Declaration on Neglected Tropical Diseases (i.e. by 2020/2025). Based on the findings of our previous model comparison, we implemented technical refinements and tested the projections of EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM against long-term epidemiological data from two West African transmission foci in Mali and Senegal where the observed prevalence of infection was brought to zero circa 2007-2009 after 15-17 years of mass ivermectin treatment. We simulated these interventions using programmatic information on the frequency and coverage of mass treatments and trained the model projections using longitudinal parasitological data from 27 communities, evaluating the projected outcome of elimination (local parasite extinction) or resurgence. We found that EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM captured adequately the epidemiological trends during mass treatment but that resurgence, while never predicted by ONCHOSIM, was predicted by EPIONCHO in some communities with the highest (inferred) vector biting rates and associated pre-intervention endemicities. Resurgence can be extremely protracted such that low (microfilarial) prevalence between 1% and 5% can be maintained for 3-5 years before manifesting more prominently. We highlight that post-treatment and post-elimination surveillance protocols must be implemented for long enough and with high enough sensitivity to detect possible residual latent infections potentially indicative of resurgence. We also discuss uncertainty and differences between EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM projections, the potential importance of vector control in high-transmission settings as a complementary intervention strategy, and the short remaining timeline for African countries to be ready to stop treatment safely and begin surveillance in order to meet the impending 2020/2025 elimination targets.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.