Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28279454›Full record

ArticleEpidemics2017

Comparison and validation of two mathematical models for the impact of mass drug administration on Ascaris lumbricoides and hookworm infection.

Luc E Coffeng, James E Truscott, Sam H Farrell, Hugo C Turner, Rajiv Sarkar, Gagandeep Kang, Sake J de Vlas, Roy M Anderson

Abstract readComparative Study
In one paragraph

Article in Epidemics, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
25citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

25 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
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  5. A Comparison of Markov and Mechanistic Models for Soil-Transmitted Helminth Prevalence Projections in the Context of Survey Design.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024
    Article
  6. Article
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  9. Impact of Key Assumptions About the Population Biology of Soil-Transmitted Helminths on the Sustainable Control of Morbidity.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021
    Article
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  20. Counting Down the 2020 Goals for 9 Neglected Tropical Diseases: What Have We Learned From Quantitative Analysis and Transmission Modeling?Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2018
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Luc E CoffengDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Electronic address: l.coffeng@erasmusmc.nl.
James E TruscottLondon Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, St. Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London WC2 1 PG, United Kingdom.
Sam H FarrellLondon Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, St. Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London WC2 1 PG, United Kingdom.
Hugo C TurnerLondon Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, St. Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London WC2 1 PG, United Kingdom.
Rajiv SarkarDivision of Gastrointestinal Sciences, Christian Medical College, Vellore 632004, Tamil Nadu, India.
Gagandeep KangDivision of Gastrointestinal Sciences, Christian Medical College, Vellore 632004, Tamil Nadu, India.
Sake J de VlasDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Roy M AndersonLondon Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, St. Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London WC2 1 PG, United Kingdom.

Funding

DBT-Wellcome Trust India Alliance IA/E/12/1/500750Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The predictions of two mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of Ascaris lumbricoides and hookworm infection and the impact of mass drug administration (MDA) are compared, using data from India. One model has an age structured partial differential equation (PDE) deterministic framework for the distribution of parasite numbers per host and sexual mating. The second model is an individual-based stochastic model. Baseline data acquired prior to treatment are used to estimate key transmission parameters, and forward projections are made, given the known MDA population coverage. Predictions are compared with observed post-treatment epidemiological patterns. The two models could equally well predict the short-term impact of deworming on A. lumbricoides and hookworm infection levels, despite being fitted to different subsets and/or summary statistics of the data. As such, the outcomes give confidence in their use as aids to policy formulation for the use of PCT to control A. lumbricoides and hookworm infection. The models further largely agree in a qualitative sense on the added benefit of semi-annual vs. annual deworming and targeting of the entire population vs. only children, as well as the potential for interruption of transmission. Further, this study also illustrates that long-term predictions are sensitive to modelling assumptions about which age groups contribute most to transmission, which depends on human demography and age-patterns in exposure and contribution to the environmental reservoir of infection, the latter being notoriously difficult to empirically quantify.

Indexed as

Mass Drug AdministrationModels, TheoreticalAnimalsAnthelminticsAscariasisAscaris lumbricoidesHookworm InfectionsHumansIndiaReproducibility of ResultsAnthelminticsMass drug administrationMathematical modellingModel comparisonSoil-transmitted helminthsValidation

Identifiers

PMID28279454
PMCPMC5340859

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.