ArticleEpidemics2017
Predicting lymphatic filariasis transmission and elimination dynamics using a multi-model ensemble framework.
Article in Epidemics, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
29 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Guidelines for multi-model comparisons of the impact of infectious disease interventions.BMC medicine · 2019Guideline
- COMET-LF: a compartmental model of dynamics of infection, disease, and elimination strategies for lymphatic filariasis.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Lymphatic filariasis transmission 10 years after stopping mass drug administration in the Gomoa west district of Ghana.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2025Article
- Subnational Projections of Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Targets in Ethiopia to Support National Level Policy.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024Article
- Lymphatic filariases and soil-transmitted helminthiases in Sri Lanka: the challenge of eliminating residual pockets of transmission.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2023Review
- Evaluating elimination thresholds and stopping criteria for interventions against the vector-borne macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis, using mathematical modelling.Communications biology · 2023Article
- Statistical methods for linking geostatistical maps and transmission models: Application to lymphatic filariasis in East Africa.Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology · 2022Article
- Modelling the Impact of Vector Control on Lymphatic Filariasis Programs: Current Approaches and Limitations.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Review
- A mathematical model of the dynamics of lymphatic filariasis in Caraga Region, the Philippines.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
- A triple-drug treatment regimen to accelerate elimination of lymphatic filariasis: From conception to delivery.International health · 2020Article
- Defining a prevalence level to describe the elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) transmission and designing monitoring & evaluating (M&E) programmes post the cessation of mass drug administration (MDA).PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Article
- Elimination or Resurgence: Modelling Lymphatic Filariasis After Reaching the 1% Microfilaremia Prevalence Threshold.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Design and Analysis of Elimination Surveys for Neglected Tropical Diseases.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Modelling for policy: The five principles of the Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Review
- Field evaluation of DNA detection of human filarial and malaria parasites using mosquito excreta/feces.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Article
- Data-driven modelling and spatial complexity supports heterogeneity-based integrative management for eliminating Simulium neavei-transmitted river blindness.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Systematic selection between age and household structure for models aimed at emerging epidemic predictions.Nature communications · 2020Article
- Accuracy of real-time multi-model ensemble forecasts for seasonal influenza in the U.S.PLoS computational biology · 2019Article
- Mapping the baseline prevalence of lymphatic filariasis across Nigeria.Parasites & vectors · 2019Article
- A collaborative multiyear, multimodel assessment of seasonal influenza forecasting in the United States.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Mathematical models of parasite transmission provide powerful tools for assessing the impacts of interventions. Owing to complexity and uncertainty, no single model may capture all features of transmission and elimination dynamics. Multi-model ensemble modelling offers a framework to help overcome biases of single models. We report on the development of a first multi-model ensemble of three lymphatic filariasis (LF) models (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, and TRANSFIL), and evaluate its predictive performance in comparison with that of the constituents using calibration and validation data from three case study sites, one each from the three major LF endemic regions: Africa, Southeast Asia and Papua New Guinea (PNG). We assessed the performance of the respective models for predicting the outcomes of annual MDA strategies for various baseline scenarios thought to exemplify the current endemic conditions in the three regions. The results show that the constructed multi-model ensemble outperformed the single models when evaluated across all sites. Single models that best fitted calibration data tended to do less well in simulating the out-of-sample, or validation, intervention data. Scenario modelling results demonstrate that the multi-model ensemble is able to compensate for variance between single models in order to produce more plausible predictions of intervention impacts. Our results highlight the value of an ensemble approach to modelling parasite control dynamics. However, its optimal use will require further methodological improvements as well as consideration of the organizational mechanisms required to ensure that modelling results and data are shared effectively between all stakeholders.
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