ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2017
Time Prediction Models for Echinococcosis Based on Gray System Theory and Epidemic Dynamics.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Strategies for tackling Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis: A systematic review and comparison of transmission models, including an assessment of the wider Taeniidae family transmission models.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Pooled it
- Modelling the Transmission Dynamics and Risk of Ovine Cystic Echinococcosis in Argentina Using the CEST Model (Cystic Echinococcosis Stochastic Transmission Model).Journal of parasitology research · 2026Article
- Machine learning-based diffusion model for prediction of coronavirus-19 outbreak.Neural computing & applications · 2023Article
- Mathematical model to predict COVID-19 mortality rate.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Modeling and Forecasting Monkeypox Cases Using Stochastic Models.Journal of clinical medicine · 2022Article
- Short-term prediction of COVID-19 spread using grey rolling model optimized by particle swarm optimization.Applied soft computing · 2021Article
- A novel grey model based on traditional Richards model and its application in COVID-19.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2021Article
- Modeling and forecasting of COVID-19 using a hybrid dynamic model based on SEIRD with ARIMA corrections.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2021Article
- Estimation of COVID-19 prevalence in Italy, Spain, and France.The Science of the total environment · 2020Article
- Forecasting the Spreading of COVID-19 across Nine Countries from Europe, Asia, and the American Continents Using the ARIMA Models.Microorganisms · 2020Article
- Prediction of the Number of Patients Infected with COVID-19 Based on Rolling Grey Verhulst Models.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Review
- Statistical Analysis and Prediction of Fatal Accidents in the Metallurgical Industry in China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Time series analysis of cumulative incidences of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers in China using both Grey and SARIMA models.PloS one · 2020Article
- Mathematical modeling and the transmission dynamics in predicting the Covid-19 - What next in combating the pandemic.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2020Article
- Trends in the Epidemiology of Sexually Transmitted Disease, Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), Gonorrhea, and Syphilis, in the 31 Provinces of Mainland China.Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research · 2019Article
- A Comparative Study on the Prediction of Occupational Diseases in China with Hybrid Algorithm Combing Models.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2019Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Echinococcosis, which can seriously harm human health and animal husbandry production, has become an endemic in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. In order to explore an effective human Echinococcosis forecasting model in Xinjiang, three grey models, namely, the traditional grey GM(1,1) model, the Grey-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model (PECGM(1,1)), and the Modified Grey Model using Fourier Series (FGM(1,1)), in addition to a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)₄ model, are applied in this study for short-term predictions. The accuracy of the different grey models is also investigated. The simulation results show that the FGM(1,1) model has a higher performance ability, not only for model fitting, but also for forecasting. Furthermore, considering the stability and the modeling precision in the long run, a dynamic epidemic prediction model based on the transmission mechanism of Echinococcosis is also established for long-term predictions. Results demonstrate that the dynamic epidemic prediction model is capable of identifying the future tendency. The number of human Echinococcosis cases will increase steadily over the next 25 years, reaching a peak of about 1250 cases, before eventually witnessing a slow decline, until it finally ends.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.