ArticleScientific reports2017
Global and regional changes in exposure to extreme heat and the relative contributions of climate and population change.
Article in Scientific reports, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed.
- Robust intensification of projected regional precipitation extremes over Africa.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Global historical population exposure to heating and cooling degree days.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Widespread heat stress will become the norm in a warming Southeast Asia.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Projected population exposure to dangerous heat stress around Lake Victoria under a high-end climate change scenario.Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site] · 2025Article
- Healthy environments for athleTes (HEAT): environmental conditions along a 90 km ultra-marathon event, South Africa.International journal of biometeorology · 2024Article
- Global projections of heat exposure of older adults.Nature communications · 2024Article
- The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms.Lancet (London, England) · 2023Review
- Historic evolution of population exposure to heatwaves in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Social media data shed light on air-conditioning interest of heat-vulnerable regions and sociodemographic groups.One earth (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2023Article
- Evaluating contributions of urbanization and global climate change to urban land surface temperature change: a case study in Lagos, Nigeria.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Individually experienced heat stress among elderly residents of an urban slum and rural village in India.International journal of biometeorology · 2022Article
- Fluctuating temperature modifies heat-mortality association around the globe.Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.)) · 2022Article
- Future heat adaptation and exposure among urban populations and why a prospering economy alone won't save us.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Effects of Herbal Adaptogen Feed-Additive on Growth Performance, Carcass Parameters, and Muscle Amino Acid Profile in Heat-Stressed Modern Broilers.Frontiers in physiology · 2021Article
- Projections of heat stress and associated work performance over India in response to global warming.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Global Socioeconomic Risk of Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change.Earth's future · 2020Article
- Impacts of climate change, population growth, and urbanization on future population exposure to long-term temperature change during the warm season in China.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2020Article
- Built environment for physical activity-An urban barometer, surveillance, and monitoring.Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity · 2020Review
- Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2018Article
- Temperature and heat in informal settlements in Nairobi.PloS one · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The frequency and intensity of extreme heat wave events have increased in the past several decades and are likely to continue to increase in the future under the influence of human-induced climate change. Exposure refers to people, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses. Exposure to extreme heat and changes therein are not just determined by climate changes but also population changes. Here we analyze output for three scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic growth to estimate future exposure change taking account of both climate and population factors. We find that for the higher emission scenario (RCP8.5-SSP3), the global exposure increases nearly 30-fold by 2100. The average exposure for Africa is over 118 times greater than it has been historically, while the exposure for Europe increases by only a factor of four. Importantly, in the absence of climate change, exposure is reduced by 75-95% globally and across all geographic regions, as compared with exposure under the high emission scenario. Under lower emission scenarios RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP2.6-SSP1, the global exposure is reduced by 65% and 85% respectively, highlighting the efficacy of mitigation efforts in reducing exposure to extreme heat.
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