Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28264669›Full record

ArticleBMC pregnancy and childbirth2017

Validation of serum progesterone <35nmol/L as a predictor of miscarriage among women with threatened miscarriage.

Sze Min Lek, Chee Wai Ku, John C Allen, Rahul Malhotra, Nguan Soon Tan, Truls Østbye, Thiam Chye Tan

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC pregnancy and childbirth, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
30citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
1.5field-weighted citation impact, top 20% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

30 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 64 citations in OpenAlex.

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  6. Weekly changes in serumThe Journal of international medical research · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Sze Min LekDuke-National University of Singapore Medical School, 8 College Road, Singapore, 169857, Singapore. lekszemin@gmail.com.
Chee Wai KuDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, KK Women's and Children's Hospital, 100 Bukit Timah Road, Singapore, 229899, Singapore.
John C AllenDuke-National University of Singapore Medical School, 8 College Road, Singapore, 169857, Singapore.
Rahul MalhotraDuke-National University of Singapore Medical School, 8 College Road, Singapore, 169857, Singapore.
Nguan Soon TanSchool of Biological Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Ave, Singapore, 639798, Singapore.
Truls ØstbyeDuke-National University of Singapore Medical School, 8 College Road, Singapore, 169857, Singapore.
Thiam Chye TanDuke-National University of Singapore Medical School, 8 College Road, Singapore, 169857, Singapore.
National University of Singapore · SGKK Women's and Children's Hospital · SGAgency for Science, Technology and Research · SG

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundOur recent paper, based on a pilot cohort of 119 women, showed that serum progesterone <35 nmol/L was prognostic of spontaneous miscarriage by 16 weeks in women with threatened miscarriage in early pregnancy. Using a larger cohort of women from the same setting (validation cohort), we aim to assess the validity of serum progesterone <35 nmol/L with the outcome of spontaneous miscarriage by 16 weeks.

methodsIn a prospective cohort study, 360 pregnant women presenting with threatened miscarriage between gestation weeks 6-10 at a tertiary hospital emergency unit for women in Singapore were recruited for this study. The main outcome measure measured is spontaneous miscarriage prior to week 16 of gestation. Area under the ROC curve (AUC) and test characteristics (sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value) at a serum progesterone cutpoint of <35 nmol/L for predicting high and low risk of spontaneous miscarriage by 16 weeks were compared between the Pilot and Validation cohorts.

resultsTest characteristics and AUC values using serum progesterone <35 nmol/L in the validation cohort were not significantly different from those in the Pilot cohort, demonstrating excellent accuracy and reproducibility of the proposed serum progesterone cut-off level.

conclusionsThe cut-off value for serum progesterone (35 nmol/L) demonstrated clinical relevance and allow clinicians to stratify patients into high and low risk groups for spontaneous miscarriage.

Indexed as

Abortion, SpontaneousAbortion, ThreatenedAdultArea Under CurveCohort StudiesDecision Support TechniquesFemaleHumansNerve Tissue ProteinsPregnancyPregnancy Trimester, FirstProgesteronePrognosisProspective StudiesReproducibility of ResultsRisk AssessmentNerve Tissue ProteinsProgesteroneRUFY3 protein, ratCut-off levelMiscarriagePredictiveProgesterone

Identifiers

PMID28264669
PMCPMC5340043
OpenAlexW2592178248

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.