ArticleEuropean journal of epidemiology2017
The modelled impact of increases in physical activity: the effect of both increased survival and reduced incidence of disease.
Article in European journal of epidemiology, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The Use of Mobile Apps and SMS Messaging as Physical and Mental Health Interventions: Systematic Review.Journal of medical Internet research · 2017Pooled it
- Quantitative Health Impact Assessment of Environmental Exposures Linked to Urban Transport and Land Use in Europe: State of Research and Research Agenda.Current environmental health reports · 2025Review
- Prevention Lab: a predictive model for estimating the impact of prevention interventions in a simulated Italian cohort.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Model Choice for Quantitative Health Impact Assessment and Modelling: An Expert Consultation and Narrative Literature Review.International journal of health policy and management · 2023Review
- Bayesian multistate modelling of incomplete chronic disease burden data.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society) · 2023Article
- Health, environmental and distributional impacts of cycling uptake: The model underlying the Propensity to Cycle tool for England and Wales.Journal of transport & health · 2021Article
- The Impact of Including Costs and Outcomes of Dementia in a Health Economic Model to Evaluate Lifestyle Interventions to Prevent Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2020Article
- Use of the prevented fraction for the population to determine deaths averted by existing prevalence of physical activity: a descriptive study.The Lancet. Global health · 2020Article
- A comparison of the modelled impacts on CVD mortality if attainment of public health recommendations was achieved in metropolitan and rural Australia.Public health nutrition · 2020Article
- Evaluating Public Health Interventions: A Neglected Area in Health Technology Assessment.Frontiers in public health · 2020Article
- Estimating the cost-effectiveness of salt reformulation and increasing access to leisure centres in England, with PRIMEtime CE model validation using the AdViSHE tool.BMC health services research · 2019Article
- Potential of active transport to improve health, reduce healthcare costs, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions: A modelling study.PloS one · 2019Article
- A shift from motorised travel to active transport: What are the potential health gains for an Australian city?PloS one · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Physical activity can affect 'need' for healthcare both by reducing the incidence rate of some diseases and by increasing longevity (increasing the time lived at older ages when disease incidence is higher). However, it is common to consider only the first effect, which may overestimate any reduction in need for healthcare. We developed a hybrid micro-simulation lifetable model, which made allowance for both changes in longevity and risk of disease incidence, to estimate the effects of increases in physical activity (all adults meeting guidelines) on measures of healthcare need for diseases for which physical activity is protective. These were compared with estimates made using comparative risk assessment (CRA) methods, which assumed that longevity was fixed. Using the lifetable model, life expectancy increased by 95 days (95% uncertainty intervals: 68-126 days). Estimates of the healthcare need tended to decrease, but the magnitude of the decreases were noticeably smaller than those estimated using CRA methods (e.g. dementia: change in person-years, -0.6%, 95% uncertainty interval -3.7% to +1.6%; change in incident cases, -0.4%, -3.6% to +1.9%; change in person-years (CRA methods), -4.0%, -7.4% to -1.6%). The pattern of results persisted under different scenarios and sensitivity analyses. For most diseases for which physical activity is protective, increases in physical activity are associated with decreases in indices of healthcare need. However, disease onset may be delayed or time lived with disease may increase, such that the decreases in need may be relatively small and less than is sometimes expected.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.