Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28257600›Full record

ArticleAddiction (Abingdon, England)2017

Modelling the impact of incarceration and prison-based hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment on HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Scotland.

Jack Stone, Natasha K Martin, Matthew Hickman, Sharon J Hutchinson, Esther Aspinall, Avril Taylor, Alison Munro, Karen Dunleavy, Erica Peters, Peter Bramley and 3 more

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Addiction (Abingdon, England), 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 50 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
50citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
9.2field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

50 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 108 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Hepatitis B and C prevalence and incidence in key population groups with multiple risk factors in the EU/EEA: a systematic review.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2019
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  16. Prison-based interventions are key to achieving HCV elimination among people who inject drugs in New South Wales, Australia: A modelling study.Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors at 7 institutions in 2 countries.

Jack StoneSchool of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4584-0068
Natasha K MartinSchool of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Matthew HickmanSchool of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Sharon J HutchinsonSchool of Health and Life Sciences, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow, UK.
Esther AspinallSchool of Health and Life Sciences, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow, UK.
Avril TaylorSchool of Media, Culture and Society, University of the West of Scotland, Paisley, UK.
Alison MunroSchool of Media, Culture and Society, University of the West of Scotland, Paisley, UK.
Karen DunleavySchool of Media, Culture and Society, University of the West of Scotland, Paisley, UK.
Erica PetersGartnavel General Hospital, Glasgow, UK.
Peter BramleyNHS Forth Valley Viral Hepatitis Service, Stirling, UK.
Peter C HayesDivision of Health Sciences, Royal Infirmary Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
David J GoldbergSchool of Health and Life Sciences, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow, UK.
Peter VickermanSchool of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Glasgow Caledonian University · GBUniversity of Bristol · GBUniversity of the West of Scotland · GBEdinburgh Royal Infirmary · GBGartnavel General Hospital · GBNHS Forth Valley · GBUniversity of San Diego · US

Funding

VirologyP30AI036214 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI David Mitchell Smith · 1994 to 2026
$78.4M
Modeling Structural HIV Determinants in Substance Users and related populationsR01DA037773 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI MARTIN, NATASHA, STRATHDEE, STEFFANIE A. · 2015 to 2017
$1.4M
Department of Health PDF-2011-04-049Department of Health RP-DG-0610-10055Medical Research Council MR/J013560/1NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI036214NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA037773
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

aimsPeople who inject drugs (PWID) experience high incarceration rates, and previous incarceration is associated with elevated hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission risk. In Scotland, national survey data indicate lower HCV incidence in prison than the community (4.3 versus 7.3 per 100 person-years), but a 2.3-fold elevated transmission risk among recently released (< 6 months) PWID. We evaluated the contribution of incarceration to HCV transmission among PWID and the impact of prison-related prevention interventions, including scaling-up direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in prison.

designDynamic mathematical modelling of incarceration and HCV transmission, using approximate Bayesian computation for model calibration.

settingScotland, UK.

participantsA simulated population of PWID. MEASUREMENTS: Population-attributable fraction (PAF) of incarceration to HCV transmission among PWID. Decrease in HCV incidence and chronic prevalence due to current levels of prison opiate substitution therapy (OST; 57% coverage) and HCV treatment, as well as scaling-up DAAs in prison and/or preventing the elevated risk associated with prison release.

findingsIncarceration contributes 27.7% [PAF; 95% credible interval (CrI) -3.1 to 51.1%] of HCV transmission among PWID in Scotland. During the next 15 years, current HCV treatment rates (10.4/6.8 per 1000 incarcerated/community PWID annually), with existing prison OST, could reduce incidence and chronic prevalence among all PWID by a relative 10.7% (95% CrI = 8.4-13.3%) and 9.7% (95% CrI = 7.7-12.1%), respectively. Conversely, without prison OST, HCV incidence and chronic prevalence would decrease by 3.1% (95% CrI = -28.5 to 18.0%) and 4.7% (95% CrI = -11.3 to 14.5%). Additionally, preventing the heightened risk among recently released PWID could reduce incidence and chronic prevalence by 45.0% (95% CrI = 19.7-57.5%) and 33.3% (95% CrI = 15.6-43.6%) or scaling-up prison HCV treatments to 80% of chronic PWID prison entrants with sufficient sentences (>16 weeks) could reduce incidence and prevalence by 45.6% (95% CrI = 38.0-51.3%) and 45.5% (95% CrI = 39.3-51.0%), respectively.

conclusionsIncarceration and the elevated transmission risk following prison release can contribute significantly to hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs. Scaling-up hepatitis C virus treatment in prison can provide important prevention benefits.

Indexed as

Models, TheoreticalAntiviral AgentsBayes TheoremComorbidityHepatitis CHumansIncidencePrisonersPrisonsScotlandSubstance Abuse, IntravenousAntiviral AgentsDAAsHCVmathematical modelOSTpeople who inject drugsprison

Identifiers

PMID28257600
PMCPMC5461206
OpenAlexW2591797736

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.