ArticleBMC medicine2017
Counting the lives saved by DOTS in India: a model-based approach.
Article in BMC medicine, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 57 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Impact of multiple consultations and switching in treatment-seeking in tuberculosis: Mathematical modelling and optimal control.PloS one · 2025Article
- TB-vaccines: Current status & challenges.The Indian journal of medical research · 2024Review
- Classification of early tuberculosis states to guide research for improved care and prevention: an international Delphi consensus exercise.The Lancet. Respiratory medicine · 2024Review
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- New tuberculosis vaccines in India: modelling the potential health and economic impacts of adolescent/adult vaccination with M72/AS01BMC medicine · 2023Article
- Effect of pandemic on DOTS treatment during COVID-19 lockdown- A cross-sectional study.The Indian journal of tuberculosis · 2023Article
- Incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis under the regular COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control in China.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Gaps and Interventions across the Diagnostic Care Cascade of TB Patients at the Level of Patient, Community and Health System: A Qualitative Review of the Literature.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2022Review
- Tuberculosis and Diabetes in India: Stakeholder Perspectives on Health System Challenges and Opportunities for Integrated Care.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2022Article
- HupB, a nucleoid-associated protein, is critical for survival ofFrontiers in microbiology · 2022Article
- Engaging with the private healthcare sector for the control of tuberculosis in India: cost and cost-effectiveness.BMJ global health · 2021Article
- Economic impact of tuberculosis mortality in 120 countries and the cost of not achieving the Sustainable Development Goals tuberculosis targets: a full-income analysis.The Lancet. Global health · 2021Article
- The potential impact of preventive therapy against tuberculosis in the WHO South-East Asian Region: a modelling approach.BMC medicine · 2020Article
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- Impact of Advocacy, Communication, Social Mobilization and Active Case Finding on TB Notification in Jharkhand, India.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2019Article
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- Strategies for ending tuberculosis in the South-East Asian Region: A modelling approach.The Indian journal of medical research · 2019Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundAgainst the backdrop of renewed efforts to control tuberculosis (TB) worldwide, there is a need for improved methods to estimate the public health impact of TB programmes. Such methods should not only address the improved outcomes amongst those receiving care but should also account for the impact of TB services on reducing transmission.
methodsVital registration data in India are not sufficiently reliable for estimates of TB mortality. As an alternative approach, we developed a mathematical model of TB transmission dynamics and mortality, capturing the scale-up of DOTS in India, through the rollout of the Revised National TB Control Programme (RNTCP). We used available data from the literature to calculate TB mortality hazards amongst untreated TB; amongst cases treated under RNTCP; and amongst cases treated under non-RNTCP conditions. Using a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework, we combined these data with current estimates for the TB burden in India to calibrate the transmission model. We simulated the national TB epidemic in the presence and absence of the DOTS programme, measuring lives saved as the difference in TB deaths between these scenarios.
resultsFrom 1997 to 2016, India's RNTCP has saved 7.75 million lives (95% Bayesian credible interval 6.29-8.82 million). We estimate that 42% of this impact was due to the 'indirect' effects of the RNTCP in averting transmission as well as improving treatment outcomes.
conclusionsWhen expanding high-quality TB services, a substantial proportion of overall impact derives from preventive, as well as curative, benefits. Mathematical models, together with sufficient data, can be a helpful tool in estimating the true population impact of major disease control programmes.
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