ArticleScientific reports2017
Evidence for history-dependence of influenza pandemic emergence.
Article in Scientific reports, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 4 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Overcoming bias in estimating epidemiological parameters with realistic history-dependent disease spread dynamics.Nature communications · 2024Article
- An extended period of elevated influenza mortality risk follows the main waves of influenza pandemics.Social science & medicine (1982) · 2023Article
- Review
- Determinants of Influenza Mortality Trends: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Influenza Mortality in the United States, 1959-2016.Demography · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Influenza A viruses have caused a number of global pandemics, with considerable mortality in humans. Here, we analyse the time periods between influenza pandemics since 1700 under different assumptions to determine whether the emergence of new pandemic strains is a memoryless or history-dependent process. Bayesian model selection between exponential and gamma distributions for these time periods gives support to the hypothesis of history-dependence under eight out of nine sets of modelling assumptions. Using the fitted parameters to make predictions shows a high level of variability in the modelled number of pandemics from 2010-2110. The approach we take here relies on limited data, so is uncertain, but it provides cheap, safe and direct evidence relating to pandemic emergence, a field where indirect measurements are often made at great risk and cost.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.