ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2017
Elevated nonlinearity as an indicator of shifts in the dynamics of populations under stress.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Temperature variation and life history mediate nonlinearity in fluctuations of marine fish populations worldwide.Nature ecology & evolution · 2026Article
- Identifying fish populations prone to abrupt shifts via dynamical footprint analysis.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Revealing unseen dynamical regimes of ecosystems from population time-series data.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Detecting shifts in nonlinear dynamics using Empirical Dynamic Modeling with Nested-Library Analysis.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Quantifying resilience and the risk of regime shifts under strong correlated noise.PNAS nexus · 2023Article
- Anticipating the occurrence and type of critical transitions.Science advances · 2023Article
- A novel nonlinear analysis of blood flow dynamics applied to the human lung.Journal of applied physiology (Bethesda, Md. : 1985) · 2022Article
- Variations in stability revealed by temporal asymmetries in contraction of phase space flow.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Detecting and distinguishing tipping points using spectral early warning signals.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Nonlinear population dynamics are ubiquitous in animals.Nature ecology & evolution · 2020Article
- Insights into coral reef benthic dynamics from nonlinear spatial forecasting.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2019Article
- Survival and weak chaos.Royal Society open science · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Populations occasionally experience abrupt changes, such as local extinctions, strong declines in abundance or transitions from stable dynamics to strongly irregular fluctuations. Although most of these changes have important ecological and at times economic implications, they remain notoriously difficult to detect in advance. Here, we study changes in the stability of populations under stress across a variety of transitions. Using a Ricker-type model, we simulate shifts from stable point equilibrium dynamics to cyclic and irregular boom-bust oscillations as well as abrupt shifts between alternative attractors. Our aim is to infer the loss of population stability before such shifts based on changes in nonlinearity of population dynamics. We measure nonlinearity by comparing forecast performance between linear and nonlinear models fitted on reconstructed attractors directly from observed time series. We compare nonlinearity to other suggested leading indicators of instability (variance and autocorrelation). We find that nonlinearity and variance increase in a similar way prior to the shifts. By contrast, autocorrelation is strongly affected by oscillations. Finally, we test these theoretical patterns in datasets of fisheries populations. Our results suggest that elevated nonlinearity could be used as an additional indicator to infer changes in the dynamics of populations under stress.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.