ArticleBMC medicine2017
Perspectives on model forecasts of the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa: lessons and the way forward.
Article in BMC medicine, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 41 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
41 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Pooled it
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- Infectious disease modeling for public health practice: projections, scenarios, and uncertainty in three phases of outbreak response.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
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- Machine learning in infectious diseases: potential applications and limitations.Annals of medicine · 2024Review
- Monitoring the West Nile virus outbreaks in Italy using open access data.Scientific data · 2023Article
- Short-term forecasts of Monkeypox cases in multiple countries: keep calm and don't panic.Journal of medical virology · 2023Article
- Spatio-temporal evolution and trend prediction of the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases in China: a sample of statistical data from 2007 to 2020.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Rapid assessment of the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation: case study and lessons learned.Epidemics · 2022Article
- The impact of long-term non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic dynamics and control: the value and limitations of early models.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2021Article
- Measuring differences between phenomenological growth models applied to epidemiology.Mathematical biosciences · 2021Article
- Emergency preparedness for public health threats, surveillance, modelling & forecasting.The Indian journal of medical research · 2021Review
- Statistical Estimation of Effects of Implemented Government Policies on COVID-19 Situation in South Korea.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Development and dissemination of infectious disease dynamic transmission models during the COVID-19 pandemic: what can we learn from other pathogens and how can we move forward?The Lancet. Digital health · 2021Review
- COVID-19 early-alert signals using human behavior alternative data.Social network analysis and mining · 2021Article
- Use of meteorological data in biosecurity.Emerging topics in life sciences · 2020Review
- Predictive accuracy of a hierarchical logistic model of cumulative SARS-CoV-2 case growth until May 2020.BMC medical research methodology · 2020Article
- Multi-model forecasts of the ongoing Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo, March-October 2019.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
The unprecedented impact and modeling efforts associated with the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa provides a unique opportunity to document the performances and caveats of forecasting approaches used in near-real time for generating evidence and to guide policy. A number of international academic groups have developed and parameterized mathematical models of disease spread to forecast the trajectory of the outbreak. These modeling efforts often relied on limited epidemiological data to derive key transmission and severity parameters, which are needed to calibrate mechanistic models. Here, we provide a perspective on some of the challenges and lessons drawn from these efforts, focusing on (1) data availability and accuracy of early forecasts; (2) the ability of different models to capture the profile of early growth dynamics in local outbreaks and the importance of reactive behavior changes and case clustering; (3) challenges in forecasting the long-term epidemic impact very early in the outbreak; and (4) ways to move forward. We conclude that rapid availability of aggregated population-level data and detailed information on a subset of transmission chains is crucial to characterize transmission patterns, while ensemble-forecasting approaches could limit the uncertainty of any individual model. We believe that coordinated forecasting efforts, combined with rapid dissemination of disease predictions and underlying epidemiological data in shared online platforms, will be critical in optimizing the response to current and future infectious disease emergencies.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.