Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28241106›Full record

ArticleCancer2017

Future of testicular germ cell tumor incidence in the United States: Forecast through 2026.

Armen A Ghazarian, Scott P Kelly, Sean F Altekruse, Philip S Rosenberg, Katherine A McGlynn

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Cancer, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 71 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
71citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
8.7field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

71 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 137 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Gonocytes in Transition: Establishing the Male Germline Identity.Advances in experimental medicine and biology · 2026
    Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Review
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Review
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

11 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Armen A GhazarianDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, Maryland.
Scott P KellyDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, Maryland.
Sean F AltekruseDivision of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, Maryland.
Philip S RosenbergDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, Maryland.
Katherine A McGlynnDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, Maryland.
National Institutes of Health · US

Funding

Hormone-Related CancersZIACP010126 · NCI · DIVISION OF CANCER EPIDEMIOLOGY AND GENETICS · PI GIERACH, GRETCHEN · 2009 to 2025
$103.5M
HORMONE-RELATED CANCERSZ01CP010126 · NCI · DIVISION OF CANCER EPIDEMIOLOGY AND GENETICS · PI BRINTON, LOUISE · 1996 to 2008
$11.2M
Intramural NIH HHS Z01 CP010126
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundTesticular germ cell tumors (TGCTs) are rare tumors in the general population but are the most commonly occurring malignancy among males between ages 15 and 44 years in the United States (US). Although non-Hispanic whites (NHWs) have the highest incidence in the US, rates among Hispanics have increased the most in recent years. To forecast what these incidence rates may be in the future, an analysis of TGCT incidence in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and the National Program of Cancer Registries was conducted.

methodsTGCT incidence data among males ages 15 to 59 years for the years 1999 to 2012 were obtained from 39 US cancer registries. Incidence rates through 2026 were forecast using age-period-cohort models stratified by race/ethnicity, histology (seminoma, nonseminoma), and age.

resultsBetween 1999 and 2012, TGCT incidence rates, both overall and by histology, were highest among NHWs, followed by Hispanics, Asian/Pacific Islanders, and non-Hispanic blacks. Between 2013 and 2026, rates among Hispanics were forecast to increase annually by 3.96% (95% confidence interval, 3.88%-4.03%), resulting in the highest rate of increase of any racial/ethnic group. By 2026, the highest TGCT rates in the US will be among Hispanics because of increases in both seminomas and nonseminomas. Rates among NHWs will slightly increase, whereas rates among other groups will slightly decrease.

conclusionsBy 2026, Hispanics will have the highest rate of TGCT of any racial/ethnic group in the US because of the rising incidence among recent birth cohorts. Reasons for the increase in younger Hispanics merit further exploration. Cancer 2017;123:2320-2328. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Indexed as

RegistriesAdolescentAdultAge DistributionEthnicityForecastingHispanic or LatinoHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedNeoplasms, Germ Cell and EmbryonalSEER ProgramSeminomaTesticular NeoplasmsUnited Statesethnic groupsIncidenceNorth American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR)testicular cancertesticular gem cell tumor (TGCT)trends

Identifiers

PMID28241106
PMCPMC5629636
OpenAlexW2593993002

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.