ArticleNature communications2017
Ensemble forecast of human West Nile virus cases and mosquito infection rates.
Article in Nature communications, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 61 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
61 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Mechanistic models for West Nile virus transmission: a systematic review of features, aims and parametrization.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Pooled it
- A kernelized data-driven approach for analyzing and predicting brucellosis in Inner Mongolia.Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.)) · 2026Article
- A data-parsimonious model for long-term risk assessments of West Nile virus spillover.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Article
- The evolution of public health statistical modeling approaches and how to advance their incorporation into modern arboviral surveillance.Journal of medical entomology · 2026Article
- Using mosquito and arbovirus data to computationally predict West Nile virus in unsampled areas of the Northeast United States.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Reconstructing the silent circulation of West Nile Virus in a Caribbean island during 15 years using sentinel serological data.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
- Modelling COVID-19 in the North American region with a metapopulation network and Kalman filter.Epidemics · 2025Article
- Seasonal Bird Migration Could Explain Regional Synchronicity and Amplification in Human West Nile Virus Case Numbers.GeoHealth · 2025Article
- Early warning system of the seasonal west nile virus infection risk in humans in northern greece, 2020-2024.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Mozambique and Zimbabwe during the first 3 years of the pandemic.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- West Nile virus - a re-emerging global threat: recent advances in vaccines and drug discovery.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2025Review
- A real-time forecasting and estimating system of West Nile virus: a case study of the 2023 WNV outbreak in Colorado, USA.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Article
- Re-Emergence of a West Nile Virus (WNV) Variant in South Spain with Rapid Spread Capacity.Viruses · 2023Article
- A Spatially Resolved and Environmentally Informed Forecast Model of West Nile Virus in Coachella Valley, California.GeoHealth · 2023Article
- Comparison of combination methods to create calibrated ensemble forecasts for seasonal influenza in the U.S.Statistics in medicine · 2023Article
- Inference of transmission dynamics and retrospective forecast of invasive meningococcal disease.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Scoping review of Culex mosquito life history trait heterogeneity in response to temperature.Parasites & vectors · 2023Article
1 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) is now endemic in the continental United States; however, our ability to predict spillover transmission risk and human WNV cases remains limited. Here we develop a model depicting WNV transmission dynamics, which we optimize using a data assimilation method and two observed data streams, mosquito infection rates and reported human WNV cases. The coupled model-inference framework is then used to generate retrospective ensemble forecasts of historical WNV outbreaks in Long Island, New York for 2001-2014. Accurate forecasts of mosquito infection rates are generated before peak infection, and >65% of forecasts accurately predict seasonal total human WNV cases up to 9 weeks before the past reported case. This work provides the foundation for implementation of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal outbreaks of WNV.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.