ArticleEuro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin2017
Inference and forecast of H7N9 influenza in China, 2013 to 2015.
Article in Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review of mechanistic models used to study avian influenza virus transmission and control.Veterinary research · 2023Pooled it
- Bayesian phylodynamics reveals the transmission dynamics of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus at the human-live bird market interface in China.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Regional Distribution of Non-human H7N9 Avian Influenza Virus Detections in China and Construction of a Predictive Model.Journal of veterinary research · 2021Article
- Real-Time Forecasting of Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks using the Integrating Compartment Model and Assimilation Filtering.Scientific reports · 2019Article
- Influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 in China: A spatial risk analysis.PloS one · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The recent emergence of A(H7N9) avian influenza poses a significant challenge to public health in China and around the world; however, understanding of the transmission dynamics and progression of influenza A(H7N9) infection in domestic poultry, as well as spillover transmission to humans, remains limited. Here, we develop a mathematical model-Bayesian inference system which combines a simple epidemic model and data assimilation method, and use it in conjunction with data on observed human influenza A(H7N9) cases from 19 February 2013 to 19 September 2015 to estimate key epidemiological parameters and to forecast infection in both poultry and humans. Our findings indicate a high outbreak attack rate of 33% among poultry but a low rate of chicken-to-human spillover transmission. In addition, we generated accurate forecasts of the peak timing and magnitude of human influenza A(H7N9) cases. This work demonstrates that transmission dynamics within an avian reservoir can be estimated and that real-time forecast of spillover avian influenza in humans is possible.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.