ArticleJournal of the American Geriatrics Society2017
Predicting Mortality up to 14 Years Among Community-Dwelling Adults Aged 65 and Older.
Article in Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT06896474 (SDM POSSIBLE), which is not on this map. Cited by 43 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
SDM POSSIBLE: A Cluster RCT of a Breast Cancer Treatment Decision Aid for Women 70+ With Low-Risk Stage I Breast Cancers
Who cites it
43 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Practical Assessment and Management of Vulnerabilities in Older Patients Receiving Systemic Cancer Therapy: ASCO Guideline Update.Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology · 2023Guideline
- Practical Assessment and Management of Vulnerabilities in Older Patients Receiving Chemotherapy: ASCO Guideline for Geriatric Oncology.Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology · 2018Guideline
- Practical Assessment and Management of Vulnerabilities in Older Patients Receiving Chemotherapy: ASCO Guideline for Geriatric Oncology Summary.Journal of oncology practice · 2018Guideline
- Does Messaging for Reducing Breast Cancer Overscreening in Older Women Have Differential Responses among Medical Minimizers and Maximizers?Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2026Trial
- The effect of conflicting versus consistent messaging on older women's support for breast cancer screening cessation.Patient education and counseling · 2025Trial
- Effect of Messaging on Support for Breast Cancer Screening Cessation Among Older US Women: A Randomized Clinical Trial.JAMA network open · 2024Trial
- Randomized Trial of Information for Older Women About Cessation of Breast Cancer Screening Invitations.Journal of general internal medicine · 2024Trial
- Effects by educational attainment of a mammography screening patient decision aid for women aged 75 years and older.Cancer · 2021Trial
- Effect of a Mammography Screening Decision Aid for Women 75 Years and Older: A Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial.JAMA internal medicine · 2020Trial
- Evaluation of Surgeon Attitudes Toward Frailty Screening in Breast Oncology Patients.Annals of surgical oncology · 2026Article
- Primary Care Associated with Improved Life Expectancy in Older US Adults: A Retrospective Cohort Study of National Survey Data.Journal of general internal medicine · 2026Article
- Older adults' interest and concerns about life expectancy information for cancer screening decisions: Results from the National Poll on Healthy Aging.Preventive medicine reports · 2025Article
- The perceived ethical appropriateness of messaging on breast cancer screening cessation among older women.Patient education and counseling · 2025Article
- Developing a website to help women aged 55 + incorporate risk in decision-making about breast cancer screening and prevention medications.Patient education and counseling · 2025Article
- Creating a Mammography Conversation Aid for Shared Decision-Making Between Clinicians and Women Aged 75 and Older.Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · 2025Article
- Variation in Receipt of Cancer Screening and Immunizations by 10-year Life Expectancy among U.S. Adults aged 65 or Older in 2019.Journal of general internal medicine · 2024Article
- Validating a model for predicting breast cancer and nonbreast cancer death in women aged 55 years and older.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2024Article
- Clinician and patient perspectives on screening mammography among women age 75 and older: A pilot study of a novel decision aid.PEC innovation · 2023Article
- Different Types of Patient Health Information Associated With Physician Decision-making Regarding Cancer Screening Cessation for Older Adults.JAMA network open · 2023Article
- A model for predicting both breast cancer risk and non-breast cancer death among women > 55 years old.Breast cancer research : BCR · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesExtended validation of an index predicting mortality among community-dwelling US older adults. DESIGN/
settingExamination of the performance of a previously developed index in predicting 10- and 14-year mortality among respondents to the 1997-2000 National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS) using the original development and validation cohorts. Follow-up mortality data are now available through 2011.
participants16,063 respondents from the original development cohort and 8,027 respondents from the original validation cohort. All participants were community dwelling and ≥65 years old. MEASUREMENTS: We calculated risk scores for each respondent based on the presence or absence of 11 factors (function, illnesses, behaviors, demographics) that make up the index. Using the Kaplan Meier method, we computed 10- and 14-year mortality estimates for the development and validation cohorts to examine model calibration. We examined model discrimination using the c-index.
resultsParticipants in the development and validation cohorts were similar. Participants with risk scores 0-4 had 23% risk of 14-year mortality whereas respondents with risk scores (13+) had 89% risk of 14-year mortality. The c-index of the model in both cohorts was 0.73 for predicting 10-year mortality and 0.72 for predicting 14-year mortality. Overall, 18.4% of adults 65-74 years and 60.2% of adults ≥75 years have >50% risk of mortality in 10 years.
conclusionsOur index demonstrated excellent calibration and discrimination in predicting 10- and 14-year mortality among community-dwelling US adults ≥65 years. Information on long-term prognosis is needed to help clinicians and older adults make more informed person-centered medical decisions and to help older adults plan for the future.
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