ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2017
Extinction pathways and outbreak vulnerability in a stochastic Ebola model.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Quasistationarity and extinction for population processes under asymptotic reversibility conditions.Journal of mathematical biology · 2025Article
- Controlling epidemic extinction using early warning signals.International journal of dynamics and control · 2023Article
- Characterizing outbreak vulnerability in a stochasticJournal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Model Integration in Computational Biology: The Role of Reproducibility, Credibility and Utility.Frontiers in systems biology · 2022Article
- Estimating the distribution of time to extinction of infectious diseases in mean-field approaches.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Degree Dispersion Increases the Rate of Rare Events in Population Networks.Physical review letters · 2019Article
- Stochastic dynamics of an epidemic with recurrent spillovers from an endemic reservoir.Journal of theoretical biology · 2018Article
- New perspectives for the prediction and statistical quantification of extreme events in high-dimensional dynamical systems.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2018Review
- Viral Infections in Pregnancy: A Focus on Ebola Virus.Current pharmaceutical design · 2018Review
- STEM: An Open Source Tool for Disease Modeling.Health securityArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
A zoonotic disease is a disease that can be passed from animals to humans. Zoonotic viruses may adapt to a human host eventually becoming endemic in humans, but before doing so punctuated outbreaks of the zoonotic virus may be observed. The Ebola virus disease (EVD) is an example of such a disease. The animal population in which the disease agent is able to reproduce in sufficient number to be able to transmit to a susceptible human host is called a reservoir. There is little work devoted to understanding stochastic population dynamics in the presence of a reservoir, specifically the phenomena of disease extinction and reintroduction. Here, we build a stochastic EVD model and explicitly consider the impacts of an animal reservoir on the disease persistence. Our modelling approach enables the analysis of invasion and fade-out dynamics, including the efficacy of possible intervention strategies. We investigate outbreak vulnerability and the probability of local extinction and quantify the effective basic reproduction number. We also consider the effects of dynamic population size. Our results provide an improved understanding of outbreak and extinction dynamics in zoonotic diseases, such as EVD.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.