ArticleMalaria journal2017
Spectrum-Malaria: a user-friendly projection tool for health impact assessment and strategic planning by malaria control programmes in sub-Saharan Africa.
Article in Malaria journal, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 21 citations in OpenAlex.
- Models for malaria control optimization-a systematic review.Malaria journal · 2024Pooled it
- How much could health worker absenteeism impact health outcomes? A modeling study of malaria in Kenya.Oxford open digital health · 2024Article
- Sub-national tailoring of malaria interventions in Mainland Tanzania: simulation of the impact of strata-specific intervention combinations using modelling.Malaria journal · 2022Article
- Progress towards achieving child survival goals in Kenya after devolution: Geospatial analysis with scenario-based projections, 2015-2025.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Estimating the local spatio-temporal distribution of malaria from routine health information systems in areas of low health care access and reporting.International journal of health geographics · 2021Article
- Applied mathematical modelling to inform national malaria policies, strategies and operations in Tanzania.Malaria journal · 2020Article
- Simulating the council-specific impact of anti-malaria interventions: A tool to support malaria strategic planning in Tanzania.PloS one · 2020Article
- Repurposing isoxazoline veterinary drugs for control of vector-borne human diseases.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2018Article
- Estimating prevalence trends in adult gonorrhoea and syphilis in low- and middle-income countries with the Spectrum-STI model: results for Zimbabwe and Morocco from 1995 to 2016.Sexually transmitted infections · 2017Article
- Impact of malaria interventions on child mortality in endemic African settings: comparison and alignment between LiST and Spectrum-Malaria model.BMC public health · 2017Article
- Maximizing the impact of malaria funding through allocative efficiency: using the right interventions in the right locations.Malaria journal · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
13 authors at 5 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundScale-up of malaria prevention and treatment needs to continue but national strategies and budget allocations are not always evidence-based. This article presents a new modelling tool projecting malaria infection, cases and deaths to support impact evaluation, target setting and strategic planning.
methodsNested in the Spectrum suite of programme planning tools, the model includes historic estimates of case incidence and deaths in groups aged up to 4, 5-14, and 15+ years, and prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection (PfPR) among children 2-9 years, for 43 sub-Saharan African countries and their 602 provinces, from the WHO and malaria atlas project. Impacts over 2016-2030 are projected for insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC), and effective management of uncomplicated cases (CMU) and severe cases (CMS), using statistical functions fitted to proportional burden reductions simulated in the P. falciparum dynamic transmission model OpenMalaria.
resultsIn projections for Nigeria, ITNs, IRS, CMU, and CMS scale-up reduced health burdens in all age groups, with largest proportional and especially absolute reductions in children up to 4 years old. Impacts increased from 8 to 10 years following scale-up, reflecting dynamic effects. For scale-up of each intervention to 80% effective coverage, CMU had the largest impacts across all health outcomes, followed by ITNs and IRS; CMS and SMC conferred additional small but rapid mortality impacts. DISCUSSION: Spectrum-Malaria's user-friendly interface and intuitive display of baseline data and scenario projections holds promise to facilitate capacity building and policy dialogue in malaria programme prioritization. The module's linking to the OneHealth Tool for costing will support use of the software for strategic budget allocation. In settings with moderately low coverage levels, such as Nigeria, improving case management and achieving universal coverage with ITNs could achieve considerable burden reductions. Projections remain to be refined and validated with local expert input data and actual policy scenarios.
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