ArticlePloS one2017
Clinical validation of a model predicting the risk of preterm delivery.
Article in PloS one, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Cervical stitch (cerclage) in combination with other treatments for preventing spontaneous preterm birth in singleton pregnancies.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2020Pooled it
- Predicting preterm birth using electronic medical records from multiple prenatal visits.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2024Article
- Development and validation of a prognosis risk score model for preterm birth among pregnant women who had antenatal care visit, Northwest, Ethiopia, retrospective follow-up study.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2023Article
- Estimating the individual singleton preterm birth risk: nomogram establishment and independent validation.Translational pediatrics · 2023Article
- Dense phenotyping from electronic health records enables machine learning-based prediction of preterm birth.BMC medicine · 2022Article
- Risk assessment of preterm birth through identification and stratification of pregnancies using a real-time scoring algorithm.SAGE open medicine · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesTo validate a model predicting the risk of threatened preterm delivery and to establish the optimal threshold for this risk scoring system. MATERIALS AND
methodsTwo cohorts were studied: one of singleton pregnancies without preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM) and no cervical cerclage (cohort 1) and one of twin pregnancies without PPROM and no cervical cerclage (cohort 2). Patients were included from January 1st 2013 until December 31st 2013 by the Regional Perinatal Network of Ile de France with patients transferred because of threatened preterm delivery at 22 to 32 weeks of gestation. The individual probability of delivery within 48 hours of admission was calculated using the nomogram for every patient. Discrimination and calibration of the nomogram as well as the optimal threshold were determined using R studio.
resultsThe nomogram accurately predicted obstetric outcome. Discrimination and calibration were excellent, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.88 (95% CI 0.86-0.90) for cohort 1 and 0.73 (95% CI 0.66-0.80) for cohort 2. The optimal threshold would be 15% for cohort 1 and 10% for cohort 2. Using these thresholds, the performance characteristics of the nomogram were: sensitivity 80% (cohort 1) and 69% (cohort 2), negative predictive value 94.8% (cohort 1) and 91.3% (cohort 2). Use of the nomogram would avoid 253 unnecessary transfers in cohort 1.
conclusionsThe nomogram was efficient and clinically relevant in our high risk population. A threshold set at 15% would help minimize the risk of preterm deliveries in singleton pregnancies and should reduce unnecessary, costly and stressful in utero transfer.
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