Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28180277›Full record

ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2017

Serial Vaccination and the Antigenic Distance Hypothesis: Effects on Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness During A(H3N2) Epidemics in Canada, 2010-2011 to 2014-2015.

Danuta M Skowronski, Catharine Chambers, Gaston De Serres, Suzana Sabaiduc, Anne-Luise Winter, James A Dickinson, Jonathan B Gubbay, Kevin Fonseca, Steven J Drews, Hugues Charest and 6 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 99 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
99citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

99 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  6. Preliminary Findings From the Dynamics of the Immune Responses to Repeat Influenza Vaccination Exposures (DRIVE I) Study: A Randomized Controlled Trial.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024
    Trial
  7. A Retrospective Test-Negative Case-Control Study to Evaluate Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Preventing Hospitalizations in Children.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021
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  20. Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Australia During 2017-2019.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2025
    Article

39 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

Danuta M SkowronskiCommunicable Disease Prevention and Control Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver.
Catharine ChambersCommunicable Disease Prevention and Control Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver.
Gaston De SerresDirection of Biological and Occupational Risks, Institut national de santé publique du Québec.
Suzana SabaiducBritish Columbia Centre for Disease Control Public Health Laboratory, Vancouver.
Anne-Luise WinterCommunicable Diseases, Emergency Preparedness and Response, Public Health Ontario, Toronto.
James A DickinsonDepartments of Family Medicine and Community Health Sciences, University of Calgary.
Jonathan B GubbayPublic Health Ontario Laboratory, Public Health Ontario, Toronto.
Kevin FonsecaDiagnostic Virology, Alberta Provincial Laboratory, Calgary.
Steven J DrewsDiagnostic Virology, Alberta Provincial Laboratory, Edmonton.
Hugues CharestLaboratoire de santé publique du Québec, Institut national de santé publique du Québec.
Christine MartineauLaboratoire de santé publique du Québec, Institut national de santé publique du Québec.
Mel KrajdenBritish Columbia Centre for Disease Control Public Health Laboratory, Vancouver.
Martin PetricDepartment of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver.
Nathalie BastienInfectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, Canada; and.
Yan LiInfectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, Canada; and.
Derek J SmithDepartment of Zoology, University of Cambridge, England.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: The antigenic distance hypothesis (ADH) predicts that negative interference from prior season's influenza vaccine (v1) on the current season's vaccine (v2) protection may occur when the antigenic distance is small between v1 and v2 (v1 ≈ v2) but large between v1 and the current epidemic (e) strain (v1 ≠ e). Methods: Vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medically attended, laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H3N2) illness was estimated by test-negative design during 3 A(H3N2) epidemics (2010-2011, 2012-2013, 2014-2015) in Canada. Vaccine effectiveness was derived with covariate adjustment across v2 and/or v1 categories relative to no vaccine receipt among outpatients aged ≥9 years. Prior vaccination effects were interpreted within the ADH framework. Results: Prior vaccination effects varied significantly by season, consistent with the ADH. There was no interference by v1 in 2010-2011 when v1 ≠ v2 and v1 ≠ e, with comparable VE for v2 alone or v2 + v1: 34% (95% confidence interval [CI] = -51% to 71%) versus 34% (95% CI = -5% to 58%). Negative interference by v1 was suggested in 2012-2013 with nonsignificant reduction in VE when v1 ≈ v2 and v1 ≠ e: 49% (95% CI = -47% to 83%) versus 28% (95% CI = -12% to 54%). Negative effects of prior vaccination were pronounced and statistically significant in 2014-2015 when v1 ≡ v2 and v1 ≠ e: 65% (95% CI = 25% to 83%) versus -33% (95% CI = -78% to 1%). Conclusions: Effects of repeat influenza vaccination were consistent with the ADH and may have contributed to findings of low VE across recent A(H3N2) epidemics since 2010 in Canada.

Indexed as

Influenza A Virus, H3N2 SubtypeAdolescentAdultAgedCanadaCase-Control StudiesChildEpidemicsFemaleHemagglutination Inhibition TestsHumansInfluenza, HumanInfluenza VaccinesLogistic ModelsMaleMiddle AgedInfluenza Vaccinesantigenic distance hypothesisantigenic site.genomic sequencinghemagglutination inhibitioninfluenzainfluenza A(H3N2) subtypeinfluenza vaccinenegative interferencerepeat vaccinationvaccine effectiveness

Identifiers

PMID28180277
PMCPMC5853783

What OpenQuestion holds

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Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.