Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28179512›Full record

ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2017

Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts.

Sara H Paull, Daniel E Horton, Moetasim Ashfaq, Deeksha Rastogi, Laura D Kramer, Noah S Diffenbaugh, A Marm Kilpatrick

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 101 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
101citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

101 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
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  8. Variations in annual dengue intensities are explained by temperature anomalies.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025
    Article
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  11. Review
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Observational
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

41 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Sara H PaullDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, 1156 High St, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA sara.paull@colorado.edu.ORCID 0000-0001-5589-9568
Daniel E HortonDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208, USA.
Moetasim AshfaqClimate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA.
Deeksha RastogiClimate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA.
Laura D KramerWadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Slingerlands, NY 12159, USA.
Noah S DiffenbaughDepartment of Earth System Science and Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
A Marm KilpatrickDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, 1156 High St, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA akilpatr@ucsc.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-3612-5775

Funding

The Impact of Climate and Climate Change on West Nile Virus TransmissionR01AI090159 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SANTA CRUZ · PI KILPATRICK, AUSTON MARMADUKE · 2010 to 2013
$1.9M
NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI090159
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The effect of global climate change on infectious disease remains hotly debated because multiple extrinsic and intrinsic drivers interact to influence transmission dynamics in nonlinear ways. The dominant drivers of widespread pathogens, like West Nile virus, can be challenging to identify due to regional variability in vector and host ecology, with past studies producing disparate findings. Here, we used analyses at national and state scales to examine a suite of climatic and intrinsic drivers of continental-scale West Nile virus epidemics, including an empirically derived mechanistic relationship between temperature and transmission potential that accounts for spatial variability in vectors. We found that drought was the primary climatic driver of increased West Nile virus epidemics, rather than within-season or winter temperatures, or precipitation independently. Local-scale data from one region suggested drought increased epidemics via changes in mosquito infection prevalence rather than mosquito abundance. In addition, human acquired immunity following regional epidemics limited subsequent transmission in many states. We show that over the next 30 years, increased drought severity from climate change could triple West Nile virus cases, but only in regions with low human immunity. These results illustrate how changes in drought severity can alter the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeDroughtsAnimalsCulicidaeEpidemicsHumansInsect VectorsWest Nile FeverWest Nile virusCulexdisease ecologyglobal warmingnonlinear temperature–disease relationshipvector-borne disease

Identifiers

PMID28179512
PMCPMC5310598

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.