ArticlePLoS computational biology2017
Early and Real-Time Detection of Seasonal Influenza Onset.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Learning from pandemics: Feature selection and clustering for robust digital disease nowcasting.PloS one · 2026Article
- Prolonged coccidioidomycosis transmission seasons in a warming California: a Markov state transition model of shifting disease dynamics.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Epidemiological methods in transition: Minimizing biases in classical and digital approaches.PLOS digital health · 2025Review
- Prolonged dry seasons lengthen coccidioidomycosis transmission seasons: implications for a changing California.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Application of the Time Derivative (TD) Method for Early Alert of Influenza Epidemics.Journal of Korean medical science · 2024Article
- Graph Neural Network Modeling of Web Search Activity for Real-time Pandemic Forecasting.Proceedings. IEEE International Conference on Healthcare Informatics · 2023Article
- Does knowing the influenza epidemic threshold has been reached influence the performance of influenza case definitions?PloS one · 2022Article
- Influenza surveillance: determining the epidemic threshold for influenza by using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM), Montenegro, 2010/11 to 2017/18 influenza seasons.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2019Article
- A maximum curvature method for estimating epidemic onset of seasonal influenza in Japan.BMC infectious diseases · 2019Article
- Forecasting type-specific seasonal influenza after 26 weeks in the United States using influenza activities in other countries.PloS one · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Every year, influenza epidemics affect millions of people and place a strong burden on health care services. A timely knowledge of the onset of the epidemic could allow these services to prepare for the peak. We present a method that can reliably identify and signal the influenza outbreak. By combining official Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) incidence rates, searches for ILI-related terms on Google, and an on-call triage phone service, Saúde 24, we were able to identify the beginning of the flu season in 8 European countries, anticipating current official alerts by several weeks. This work shows that it is possible to detect and consistently anticipate the onset of the flu season, in real-time, regardless of the amplitude of the epidemic, with obvious advantages for health care authorities. We also show that the method is not limited to one country, specific region or language, and that it provides a simple and reliable signal that can be used in early detection of other seasonal diseases.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.