Observational studyProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2017
Estimating the population-level impact of vaccines using synthetic controls.
Observational study in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT06511687 (Effectiveness And Impact of Nirsevimab In A Nationwide Immunization Program During The 2024 Winter Campaign In Chile), which is not on this map. Cited by 42 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Effectiveness And Impact of Nirsevimab In A Nationwide Immunization Program During The 2024 Winter Campaign In Chile (Nirse-CL)
Who cites it
42 citing papers in PubMed, 79 citations in OpenAlex.
- Health care utilization and cost implications of Chile's 2024 nirsevimab strategy for RSV prevention: a counterfactual analysis.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- Change in the distribution ofFrontiers in microbiology · 2026Article
- Synthetic Data in Healthcare and Drug Development: Definitions, Regulatory Frameworks, Issues.CPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology · 2025Review
- Impact of rotavirus vaccination in Malawi from 2012 to 2022 compared to model predictions.NPJ vaccines · 2024Article
- Extreme precipitation, exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change, drove Peru's record-breaking 2023 dengue outbreak.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Estimated Population-Level Impact of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines Against All-Cause Pneumonia Mortality Among Unvaccinated in 5 Latin American Countries.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Quasi-experimental methods for pharmacoepidemiology: difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods with case studies for vaccine evaluation.American journal of epidemiology · 2024Article
- A Bayesian multivariate factor analysis model for causal inference using time-series observational data on mixed outcomes.Biostatistics (Oxford, England) · 2024Article
- Synthetic Controls for Implementation Science: Opportunities for HIV Program Evaluation Using Routinely Collected Data.Current HIV/AIDS reports · 2024Review
- Doubly robust proximal synthetic controls.Biometrics · 2024Article
- Article
- Assessing the impact of the "malaria supporters project" intervention to malaria control in the Brazilian Amazon: an interrupted time-series analysis.Malaria journal · 2023Article
- Infant mortality rates and pneumococcal vaccines: a time-series trend analysis in 194 countries, 1950-2020.BMJ global health · 2023Review
- Using LASSO Regression to Estimate the Population-Level Impact of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines.American journal of epidemiology · 2023Article
- Incidence of non-invasive all-cause pneumonia in children in the United States before and after the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines: a retrospective claims database analysis.Pneumonia (Nathan Qld.) · 2023Article
- Article
- Evaluating the Impact of Meningococcal Vaccines With Synthetic Controls.American journal of epidemiology · 2022Article
- Synthetic Control Methods for the Evaluation of Single-Unit Interventions in Epidemiology: A Tutorial.American journal of epidemiology · 2021Article
- How many more? Under-reporting of the COVID-19 deaths in Brazil in 2020.Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH · 2021Article
- Declines in Pneumonia Mortality Following the Introduction of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines in Latin American and Caribbean Countries.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
When a new vaccine is introduced, it is critical to monitor trends in disease rates to ensure that the vaccine is effective and to quantify its impact. However, estimates from observational studies can be confounded by unrelated changes in healthcare utilization, changes in the underlying health of the population, or changes in reporting. Other diseases are often used to detect and adjust for these changes, but choosing an appropriate control disease a priori is a major challenge. The "synthetic controls" (causal impact) method, which was originally developed for website analytics and social sciences, provides an appealing solution. With this approach, potential comparison time series are combined into a composite and are used to generate a counterfactual estimate, which can be compared with the time series of interest after the intervention. We sought to estimate changes in hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia associated with the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in five countries in the Americas. Using synthetic controls, we found a substantial decline in hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia in infants in all five countries (average of 20%), whereas estimates for young and middle-aged adults varied by country and were potentially influenced by the 2009 influenza pandemic. In contrast to previous reports, we did not detect a decline in all-cause pneumonia in older adults in any country. Synthetic controls promise to increase the accuracy of studies of vaccine impact and to increase comparability of results between populations compared with alternative approaches.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.