ArticleGenus2017
Probabilistic mortality forecasting with varying age-specific survival improvements.
Article in Genus, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Exploring the Nexus Between Fertility Rates and Geopolitical Risk with Intelligence Methods: A Multifaceted Analysis.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Forecasting Inequalities in Survival to Retirement Age by Socioeconomic Status in Denmark and Sweden.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2024Article
- What Can We Learn from the Functional Clustering of Mortality Data? An Application to the Human Mortality Database.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2021Article
- Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Life Expectancy.Journal of official statistics · 2021Article
- Mortality Forecasting with the Lee-Carter Method: Adjusting for Smoothing and Lifespan Disparity.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2021Article
- A demographic scaling model for estimating the total number of COVID-19 infections.International journal of epidemiology · 2021Article
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- How Has the Lower Boundary of Human Mortality Evolved, and Has It Already Stopped Decreasing?Demography · 2018Article
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- Article
- Advances in mortality forecasting: introduction.Genus · 2018Article
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- Impact of Economic Conditions and Crises on Mortality and its Predictability.Kolner Zeitschrift fur Soziologie und SozialpsychologieArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Many mortality forecasting approaches extrapolate past trends. Their predictions of the future development can be quite precise as long as turning points and/or age-shifts of mortality decline are not present. To account even for such mortality dynamics, we propose a model that combines recently developed ideas in a single framework. It (1) uses rates of mortality improvement to model the aging of mortality decline, and it (2) optionally combines the mortality trends of multiple countries to catch anticipated turning points. We use simulation-based Bayesian inference to estimate and run this model that also provides prediction intervals to quantify forecast uncertainty. Validating mortality forecasts for British and Danish women from 1991 to 2011 suggest that our model can forecast regular and irregular mortality developments and that it can perform at least as well as other widely accepted approaches like, for instance, the Lee-Carter model or the UN Bayesian approach. Moreover, prospective mortality forecasts from 2012 to 2050 suggest gradual increases for British and Danish life expectancy at birth.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.