Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28129769›Full record

ArticleTheoretical biology & medical modelling2017

The role of mobility and health disparities on the transmission dynamics of Tuberculosis.

Victor Moreno, Baltazar Espinoza, Kamal Barley, Marlio Paredes, Derdei Bichara, Anuj Mubayi, Carlos Castillo-Chavez

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Theoretical biology & medical modelling, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
2.3field-weighted citation impact, top 13% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 33 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. First insights into the genetic composition ofJournal of clinical tuberculosis and other mycobacterial diseases · 2025
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Vector-borne disease models with Lagrangian approach.Journal of mathematical biology · 2024
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Review
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Narrating the Transition to Adulthood for Youth in Uganda: Leaving School, Mobility, Risky Occupations, and HIV.Health education & behavior : the official publication of the Society for Public Health Education · 2019
    Article
  13. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.

Victor MorenoSimon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, US.
Baltazar EspinozaSimon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, US.
Kamal BarleySimon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, US.
Marlio ParedesSimon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, US.
Derdei BicharaSimon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, US.
Anuj MubayiSimon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, US. amubayi@asu.edu.ORCID 0000-0003-3936-3055
Carlos Castillo-ChavezSimon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, US.
Arizona State University · USCalifornia State University, Fullerton · USUniversidad Yachay Tech · ECUniversity of Puerto Rico at Cayey · PR

Funding

Modeling Anthropogenic Effects in the Spread of Infectious DiseasesR01GM100471 · NIGMS · ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY-TEMPE CAMPUS · PI PERRINGS, CHARLES · 2011 to 2014
$1.5M
Merging Viral Genetics with Climate and Population Data for Zoonotic SurveillanceR01LM012080 · NLM · ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY-TEMPE CAMPUS · PI SCOTCH, MATTHEW · 2015 to 2017
$1.1M
NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM100471NLM NIH HHS R01 LM012080
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe transmission dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) involve complex epidemiological and socio-economical interactions between individuals living in highly distinct regional conditions. The level of exogenous reinfection and first time infection rates within high-incidence settings may influence the impact of control programs on TB prevalence. The impact that effective population size and the distribution of individuals' residence times in different patches have on TB transmission and control are studied using selected scenarios where risk is defined by the estimated or perceive first time infection and/or exogenous re-infection rates.

methodsThis study aims at enhancing the understanding of TB dynamics, within simplified, two patch, risk-defined environments, in the presence of short term mobility and variations in reinfection and infection rates via a mathematical model. The modeling framework captures the role of individuals' 'daily' dynamics within and between places of residency, work or business via the average proportion of time spent in residence and as visitors to TB-risk environments (patches). As a result, the effective population size of Patch i (home of i-residents) at time t must account for visitors and residents of Patch i, at time t.

resultsThe study identifies critical social behaviors mechanisms that can facilitate or eliminate TB infection in vulnerable populations. The results suggest that short-term mobility between heterogeneous patches contributes to significant overall increases in TB prevalence when risk is considered only in terms of direct new infection transmission, compared to the effect of exogenous reinfection. Although, the role of exogenous reinfection increases the risk that come from large movement of individuals, due to catastrophes or conflict, to TB-free areas.

conclusionsThe study highlights that allowing infected individuals to move from high to low TB prevalence areas (for example via the sharing of treatment and isolation facilities) may lead to a reduction in the total TB prevalence in the overall population. The higher the population size heterogeneity between distinct risk patches, the larger the benefit (low overall prevalence) under the same "traveling" patterns. Policies need to account for population specific factors (such as risks that are inherent with high levels of migration, local and regional mobility patterns, and first time infection rates) in order to be long lasting, effective and results in low number of drug resistant cases.

Indexed as

Disease Transmission, InfectiousHealthcare DisparitiesModels, TheoreticalTravelHumansTuberculosisDirect first time infection rateExogenous re-infectionHeterogeneityMetapopulation modelResidence timesTuberculosis

Identifiers

PMID28129769
PMCPMC5273827
OpenAlexW2520991330

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.