ArticleBMJ open2017
Estimated reductions in cardiovascular and gastric cancer disease burden through salt policies in England: an IMPACTNCD microsimulation study.
Article in BMJ open, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
31 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Modelling health and economic impact of nutrition interventions: a systematic review.European journal of clinical nutrition · 2023Pooled it
- Estimated health and economic effects of different salt reduction strategies on cardiovascular disease in Brazil: a microsimulation analysis.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Exploring the contribution of risk factors on major illness: a microsimulation study in England, 2023-2043.Nature communications · 2025Article
- The potential impact of policies and structural interventions in reducing cardiovascular disease and mortality: a systematic review of simulation-based studies.Health technology assessment (Winchester, England) · 2025Article
- Nutrition and Micronutrient Interactions in Autoimmune Thyroid Disorders: Implications for Cardiovascular Health.Pathophysiology : the official journal of the International Society for Pathophysiology · 2025Review
- The potential health impact and healthcare cost savings of different sodium reduction strategies in Canada.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Simulated retail food environments: A literature review of systems science approaches to advance equity in access to healthy diets.Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity · 2025Review
- Article
- Cost-effectiveness analysis of low-sodium potassium-rich salt substitutes in Indonesia: an equity modelling study.The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia · 2024Article
- Projected health and economic impacts of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation in Germany: A cross-validation modelling study.PLoS medicine · 2023Article
- Article
- Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease attributable to high sodium intake from 1990 to 2019.Frontiers in nutrition · 2023Article
- Reducing daily salt intake in China by 1 g could prevent almost 9 million cardiovascular events by 2030: a modelling study.BMJ nutrition, prevention & health · 2022Article
- Dietary behaviour and physical activity policies in Europe: learnings from the Policy Evaluation Network (PEN).European journal of public health · 2022Review
- Estimating the impact of nutrition and physical activity policies with quasi-experimental methods and simulation modelling: an integrative review of methods, challenges and synergies.European journal of public health · 2022Review
- Applications of Complex Systems Models to Improve Retail Food Environments for Population Health: A Scoping Review.Advances in nutrition (Bethesda, Md.) · 2022Article
- Article
- Predicting the effectiveness of interventions on population-level sodium reduction: A simulation modeling study.Health science reports · 2022Article
- The estimated burden of ultra-processed foods on cardiovascular disease outcomes in Brazil: A modeling study.Frontiers in nutrition · 2022Article
- Estimating the health and economic effects of the voluntary sodium reduction targets in Brazil: microsimulation analysis.BMC medicine · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo estimate the impact and equity of existing and potential UK salt reduction policies on primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and gastric cancer (GCa) in England.
designA microsimulation study of a close-to-reality synthetic population. In the first period, 2003-2015, we compared the impact of current policy against a counterfactual 'no intervention' scenario, which assumed salt consumption persisted at 2003 levels. For 2016-2030, we assumed additional legislative policies could achieve a steeper salt decline and we compared this against the counterfactual scenario that the downward trend in salt consumption observed between 2001 and 2011 would continue up to 2030.
settingSynthetic population with similar characteristics to the non-institutionalised population of England.
participantsSynthetic individuals with traits informed by the Health Survey for England. MAIN MEASURE: CVD and GCa cases and deaths prevented or postponed, stratified by fifths of socioeconomic status using the Index of Multiple Deprivation.
resultsSince 2003, current salt policies have prevented or postponed ∼52 000 CVD cases (IQR: 34 000-76 000) and 10 000 CVD deaths (IQR: 3000-17 000). In addition, the current policies have prevented ∼5000 new cases of GCa (IQR: 2000-7000) resulting in about 2000 fewer deaths (IQR: 0-4000). This policy did not reduce socioeconomic inequalities in CVD, and likely increased inequalities in GCa. Additional legislative policies from 2016 could further prevent or postpone ∼19 000 CVD cases (IQR: 8000-30 000) and 3600 deaths by 2030 (IQR: -400-8100) and may reduce inequalities. Similarly for GCa, 1200 cases (IQR: -200-3000) and 700 deaths (IQR: -900-2300) could be prevented or postponed with a neutral impact on inequalities.
conclusionsCurrent salt reduction policies are powerfully effective in reducing the CVD and GCa burdens overall but fail to reduce the inequalities involved. Additional structural policies could achieve further, more equitable health benefits.
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