ArticleEnvironmental science & technology2017
Modeling Biphasic Environmental Decay of Pathogens and Implications for Risk Analysis.
Article in Environmental science & technology, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Modeling environmentally mediated rotavirus transmission: The role of temperature and hydrologic factors.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2018Pooled it
- Beyond Exponential Decay: How Biphasic and Delayed Decay Dynamics Shape Marine eDNA Dispersal.Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Risk assessment of Escherichia coli O157:H7 along the farm-to-fork fresh-cut romaine lettuce supply chain.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Design, optimization, and inference of biphasic decay of infectious virus particles.Journal of theoretical biology · 2025Article
- Food Preservation in the Industrial Revolution Epoch: Innovative High Pressure Processing (HPP, HPT) for the 21st-Century Sustainable Society.Foods (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Review
- Design, optimization, and inference of biphasic decay of infectious virus particles.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024Article
- Efficient assays to quantify the life history traits of algal viruses.Applied and environmental microbiology · 2023Article
- Combining a parsimonious mathematical model with infection data from tailor-made experiments to understand environmental transmission.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Predictive Population Dynamics of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Salmonella enterica on Plants: a Mechanistic Mathematical Model Based on Weather Parameters and Bacterial State.Applied and environmental microbiology · 2023Article
- Phototroph-heterotroph interactions during growth and long-term starvation across Prochlorococcus and Alteromonas diversity.The ISME journal · 2023Article
- Computationally efficient framework for diagnosing, understanding and predicting biphasic population growth.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Viability of SARS-CoV-2 in river water and wastewater at different temperatures and solids content.Water research · 2021Article
- Die-off of plant pathogenic bacteria in tile drainage and anoxic water from a managed aquifer recharge site.PloS one · 2021Article
- Impact of Freeze-Thaw Cycles on Die-Off ofInternational journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Evidence for a Growth Zone for Deep-Subsurface Microbial Clades in Near-Surface Anoxic Sediments.Applied and environmental microbiology · 2020Article
- Ultra-sensitive RDT performance and antigen dynamics in a high-transmission Plasmodium falciparum setting in Mali.Malaria journal · 2020Article
- Effect of Weather on the Die-Off of Escherichia coli and Attenuated Salmonella enterica Serovar Typhimurium on Preharvest Leafy Greens following Irrigation with Contaminated Water.Applied and environmental microbiology · 2020Article
- Formation of Escherichia coli O157:H7 Persister Cells in the Lettuce Phyllosphere and Application of Differential Equation Models To Predict Their Prevalence on Lettuce Plants in the Field.Applied and environmental microbiology · 2020Article
- Modeling the Effects of Future Hydroclimatic Conditions on Microbial Water Quality and Management Practices in Two Agricultural Watersheds.Transactions of the ASABE · 2020Article
- Well-Balanced Force FieldJournal of chemical theory and computation · 2019Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
As the appreciation for the importance of the environment in infectious disease transmission has grown, so too has interest in pathogen fate and transport. Fate has been traditionally described by simple exponential decay, but there is increasing recognition that some pathogens demonstrate a biphasic pattern of decay-fast followed by slow. While many have attributed this behavior to population heterogeneity, we demonstrate that biphasic dynamics can arise through a number of plausible mechanisms. We examine the identifiability of a general model encompassing three such mechanisms: population heterogeneity, hardening off, and the existence of viable-but-not-culturable states. Although the models are not fully identifiable from longitudinal sampling studies of pathogen concentrations, we use a differential algebra approach to determine identifiable parameter combinations. Through case studies using Cryptosporidium and Escherichia coli, we show that failure to consider biphasic pathogen dynamics can lead to substantial under- or overestimation of disease risks and pathogen concentrations, depending on the context. More reliable models for environmental hazards and human health risks are possible with an improved understanding of the conditions in which biphasic die-off is expected. Understanding the mechanisms of pathogen decay will ultimately enhance our control efforts to mitigate exposure to environmental contamination.
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