Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28102319›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2017

Temporal Topic Modeling to Assess Associations between News Trends and Infectious Disease Outbreaks.

Saurav Ghosh, Prithwish Chakraborty, Elaine O Nsoesie, Emily Cohn, Sumiko R Mekaru, John S Brownstein, Naren Ramakrishnan

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  14. Project Tycho 2.0: a repository to improve the integration and reuse of data for global population health.Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA · 2018
    Article
  15. Big Data's Role in Precision Public Health.Frontiers in public health · 2018
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Saurav GhoshDepartment of Computer Science, Virginia Tech, Arlington, Virginia, USA.
Prithwish ChakrabortyDepartment of Computer Science, Virginia Tech, Arlington, Virginia, USA.
Elaine O NsoesieChildren's Hospital Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Emily CohnChildren's Hospital Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Sumiko R MekaruDepartment of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
John S BrownsteinChildren's Hospital Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Naren RamakrishnanDepartment of Computer Science, Virginia Tech, Arlington, Virginia, USA.

Funding

A Framework for Integrating Multiple Data Sources for Modeling and Forecasting of Infectious DiseasesK01ES025438 · NIEHS · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI NSOESIE, ELAINE O. · 2014 to 2016
$322k
NIEHS NIH HHS K01 ES025438
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes during the course of an outbreak. In this study, we quantify the extent to which media interest during infectious disease outbreaks is indicative of trends of reported incidence. We introduce an approach that uses supervised temporal topic models to transform large corpora of news articles into temporal topic trends. The key advantages of this approach include: applicability to a wide range of diseases and ability to capture disease dynamics, including seasonality, abrupt peaks and troughs. We evaluated the method using data from multiple infectious disease outbreaks reported in the United States of America (U.S.), China, and India. We demonstrate that temporal topic trends extracted from disease-related news reports successfully capture the dynamics of multiple outbreaks such as whooping cough in U.S. (2012), dengue outbreaks in India (2013) and China (2014). Our observations also suggest that, when news coverage is uniform, efficient modeling of temporal topic trends using time-series regression techniques can estimate disease case counts with increased precision before official reports by health organizations.

Indexed as

Models, TheoreticalChinaCommunicable DiseasesDengueDisease OutbreaksHumansIndiaSeasonsUnited StatesWhooping Cough

Identifiers

PMID28102319
PMCPMC5244405

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.