ReviewEuropean respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society2017
Prediction models for exacerbations in patients with COPD.
Review in European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 64 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
64 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Community-based prediction models of cardiovascular events, acute exacerbations and all-cause mortality in individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis on behalf of the International Cardiovascular and Respiratory Alliance.BMJ open respiratory research · 2026Pooled it
- Quantitative computed tomography and predictive modelling for COPD exacerbations.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2025Pooled it
- A 7-point evidence-based care discharge protocol for patients hospitalized for exacerbation of COPD: consensus strategy and expert recommendation.NPJ primary care respiratory medicine · 2024Pooled it
- Risk factors for all-cause hospital readmission following exacerbation of COPD: a systematic review and meta-analysis.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2020Pooled it
- Impact of Telemonitoring With Exacerbation Prediction Algorithm Versus Telemonitoring Alone on Hospitalizations and Health-Related Quality of Life in Patients With COPD.Respiratory care · 2025Trial
- Development of a daily predictive model for the exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.Scientific reports · 2023Trial
- ACCEPT 3.0: Recalibrating ACute COPD Exacerbation Prediction Tool (ACCEPT) for global use.Diagnostic and prognostic research · 2026Article
- Development of an artificial intelligence prediction model for moderate-to-severe COPD exacerbations using continuous multiple unobtrusive sensors: protocol of a multicentre prospective observational study.BMJ open respiratory research · 2026Article
- Prognostic score for predicting respiratory admissions among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in primary care: development and validation in population cohorts (Birmingham Lung Improvement Studies (BLISS)).BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2026Observational
- Prolonged expiratory time constant and risk of moderate-to-severe exacerbations in stable COPD.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Prediction of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Using Machine Learning, Clinical Summary Notes, and Vital Signs: A Single-Center Retrospective Cohort Study in the United States.Advances in respiratory medicine · 2026Article
- Predicting COPD Exacerbations: From Data Mining to Clinical Decision-Making.International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2026Article
- Prognostic Models for Disease Progression and Outcomes in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Review
- Determinants of poor chronic obstructive pulmonary disease control.The Libyan journal of medicine · 2025Article
- Artificial Intelligence Methods and Digital Intervention Strategies for Predicting and Managing Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations: An Umbrella Review.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Cell viability measured by cytotoxicity assay as a biomarker of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation: a prospective cohort study.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Deep Learning-Based Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbation Prediction Using Flow-Volume and Volume-Time Curve Imaging: Retrospective Cohort Study.Journal of medical Internet research · 2025Article
- Airway Mucus Plugs on Chest Computed Tomography Are Associated with Exacerbations in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2025Article
- IL-6 and CD4Journal of inflammation research · 2025Article
- Leveraging Machine Learning and Real-World Data to Predict Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations.International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2025Article
4 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Personalised medicine aims to tailor medical decisions to the individual patient. A possible approach is to stratify patients according to the risk of adverse outcomes such as exacerbations in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Risk-stratified approaches are particularly attractive for drugs like inhaled corticosteroids or phosphodiesterase-4 inhibitors that reduce exacerbations but are associated with harms. However, it is currently not clear which models are best to predict exacerbations in patients with COPD. Therefore, our aim was to identify and critically appraise studies on models that predict exacerbations in COPD patients. Out of 1382 studies, 25 studies with 27 prediction models were included. The prediction models showed great heterogeneity in terms of number and type of predictors, time horizon, statistical methods and measures of prediction model performance. Only two out of 25 studies validated the developed model, and only one out of 27 models provided estimates of individual exacerbation risk, only three out of 27 prediction models used high-quality statistical approaches for model development and evaluation. Overall, none of the existing models fulfilled the requirements for risk-stratified treatment to personalise COPD care. A more harmonised approach to develop and validate high- quality prediction models is needed to move personalised COPD medicine forward.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.