ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2017
Defining the Risk of Zika and Chikungunya Virus Transmission in Human Population Centers of the Eastern United States.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
26 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Pooled it
- The Hsf1-sHsp cascade has pan-antiviral activity in mosquito cells.Communications biology · 2025Article
- Assessing the impact of emergency measures in varied population density areas during a large dengue outbreak.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Article
- Comparing Satellite and Ground-Based Measurements of Environmental Suitability for Vector Mosquitoes in an Urban Landscape.Journal of medical entomology · 2022Article
- How public reaction to disease information across scales and the impacts of vector control methods influence disease prevalence and control efficacy.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- Chikungunya Beyond the Tropics: Where and When Do We Expect Disease Transmission in Europe?Viruses · 2021Article
- Host interactions of Aedes albopictus, an invasive vector of arboviruses, in Virginia, USA.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050.Global change biology · 2021Article
- Coordination among neighbors improves the efficacy of Zika control despite economic costs.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Article
- A framework for evaluating the effects of observational type and quality on vector-borne disease forecast.Epidemics · 2020Article
- Low to medium-low risk perception for dengue, chikungunya and Zika outbreaks by infectious diseases physicians in France, Western Europe.BMC public health · 2019Article
- Development and Validation of Reverse Transcription Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification (RT-LAMP) for Rapid Detection of ZIKV in Mosquito Samples from Brazil.Scientific reports · 2019Article
- Primary blood-hosts of mosquitoes are influenced by social and ecological conditions in a complex urban landscape.Parasites & vectors · 2018Article
- Consensus and conflict among ecological forecasts of Zika virus outbreaks in the United States.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Inferring the risk factors behind the geographical spread and transmission of Zika in the Americas.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2018Article
- Zika Virus and Future Research Directions.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2017Review
- Quantifying Zika: Advancing the Epidemiology of Zika With Quantitative Models.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2017Review
- A survey-based study of Zika virus communication preferences among pregnant women in Georgia, United States.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2017Article
- Socio-Ecological Mechanisms Supporting High Densities of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Baltimore, MD.Journal of medical entomology · 2017Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
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Abstract
The recent spread of mosquito-transmitted viruses and associated disease to the Americas motivates a new, data-driven evaluation of risk in temperate population centers. Temperate regions are generally expected to pose low risk for significant mosquito-borne disease; however, the spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) across densely populated urban areas has established a new landscape of risk. We use a model informed by field data to assess the conditions likely to facilitate local transmission of chikungunya and Zika viruses from an infected traveler to Ae. albopictus and then to other humans in USA cities with variable human densities and seasonality. Mosquito-borne disease occurs when specific combinations of conditions maximize virus-to-mosquito and mosquito-to-human contact rates. We develop a mathematical model that captures the epidemiology and is informed by current data on vector ecology from urban sites. The model demonstrates that under specific but realistic conditions, fifty-percent of introductions by infectious travelers to a high human, high mosquito density city could initiate local transmission and 10% of the introductions could result in 100 or more people infected. Despite the propensity for Ae. albopictus to bite non-human vertebrates, we also demonstrate that local virus transmission and human outbreaks may occur when vectors feed from humans even just 40% of the time. Inclusion of human behavioral changes and mitigations were not incorporated into the models and would likely reduce predicted infections. This work demonstrates how a conditional series of non-average events can result in local arbovirus transmission and outbreaks of human disease, even in temperate cities.
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