ArticleBMC infectious diseases2017
Application of the analytic hierarchy approach to the risk assessment of Zika virus disease transmission in Guangdong Province, China.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 28 citations in OpenAlex.
- A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Pooled it
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- Risk Modeling of Bat Rabies in the Caribbean Islands.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2020Article
- Spatial distribution of the relative risk of Zika virus disease in Colombia during the 2015-2016 epidemic from a Bayesian approach.International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics · 2020Article
- Identifying high risk areas of Zika virus infection by meteorological factors in Colombia.BMC infectious diseases · 2019Article
- Joint Estimation of Relative Risk for Dengue and Zika Infections, Colombia, 2015-2016.Emerging infectious diseases · 2019Article
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- Landscape of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in China: impact of ecology, climate, and behavior.Frontiers of medicine · 2018Review
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Authors and funding
15 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundAn international spread of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has attracted global attention in 2015. The infection also affected Guangdong province, which is located in southern China. Multiple factors, including frequent communication with South America and Southeast Asia, suitable climate (sub-tropical) for the habitat of Aedes species, may increase the risk of ZIKV disease transmission in this region.
methodsAn analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was used to develop a semi-quantitative ZIKV risk assessment model. After selecting indicators, we invited experts in related professions to identify the index weight and based on that a hierarchical structure was generated. Then a series of pairwise comparisons were used to determine the relative importance of the criteria. Finally, the optimal model was established to estimate the spatial and seasonal transmission risk of ZIKV.
resultsA total of 15 factors that potentially influenced the risk of ZIKV transmission were identified. The factor that received the largest weight was epidemic of ZIKV in Guangdong province (combined weight [CW] =0.37), followed by the mosquito density (CW = 0.18) and the epidemic of DENV in Guangdong province (CW = 0.14). The distribution of 123 districts/counties' RIs of ZIKV in Guangdong through different seasons were presented, respectively.
conclusionsHigher risk was observed within Pearl River Delta including Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Jiangmen, and the risk is greater in summer and autumn compared to spring and winter.
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