Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28066759›Full record

ArticleFrontiers in public health2016

10 Years of Environmental Change on the Slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro and Its Associated Shift in Malaria Vector Distributions.

Manisha A Kulkarni, Rachelle E Desrochers, Debora C Kajeguka, Robert Diotrephes Kaaya, Andrew Tomayer, Eliningaya J Kweka, Natacha Protopopoff, Franklin W Mosha

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Article in Frontiers in public health, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  13. Evolutionary adaptation under climate change:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
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  14. Review
  15. Evolutionary adaptation under climate change:bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Rapid range shifts in AfricanBiology letters · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Manisha A KulkarniSchool of Epidemiology, Public Health and Preventive Medicine, University of Ottawa , Ottawa, ON , Canada.
Rachelle E DesrochersHealthBridge , Ottawa, ON , Canada.
Debora C KajegukaKilimanjaro Christian Medical University College , Moshi , Tanzania.
Robert Diotrephes KaayaKilimanjaro Christian Medical University College , Moshi , Tanzania.
Andrew TomayerSchool of Epidemiology, Public Health and Preventive Medicine, University of Ottawa , Ottawa, ON , Canada.
Eliningaya J KwekaTropical Pesticide Research Institute, Arusha, Tanzania; Catholic University of Health and Allied Sciences, Mwanza, Tanzania.
Natacha ProtopopoffLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , London , UK.
Franklin W MoshaKilimanjaro Christian Medical University College , Moshi , Tanzania.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionMalaria prevalence has declined in the Kilimanjaro region of Tanzania over the past 10 years, particularly at lower altitudes. While this decline has been related to the scale-up of long-lasting insecticidal nets to achieve universal coverage targets, it has also been attributed to changes in environmental factors that are important for enabling and sustaining malaria transmission.

objectivesHerein, we apply spatial analytical approaches to investigate the impact of environmental and demographic changes, including changes in temperature, precipitation, land cover, and population density, on the range of the major malaria vector species

methodsEntomological data were collected from the Hai and Lower Moshi districts of Tanzania in 2001-2004 and 2014-2015. Vector occurrence data were applied alongside satellite remote sensing indices of climate and land cover, and gridded population data, to develop species distribution models for

resultsChanges in land cover were observed in addition to increased population densities, increased warm season temperature, and decreased wetness at low altitudes. The predicted area and extent of suitable habitat for

conclusionWe show that environmental changes have had an important influence on the distribution of malaria vector species in a highland area of northern Tanzania. Highland areas may be at continued risk for sporadic malaria outbreaks despite the overall range contraction of principal vector species at lower altitudes, where malaria transmission remains at low intensity.

Indexed as

Anopheles arabiensisecological niche modelingenvironmental changegeographic information systemshighland malariaMaxentTanzaniavector-borne diseases

Identifiers

PMID28066759
PMCPMC5174083

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.