ArticlePloS one2017
Individual HIV Risk versus Population Impact of Risk Compensation after HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis Initiation among Men Who Have Sex with Men.
Article in PloS one, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
31 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 45 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prospects of HIV elimination among men who have sex with men: A systematic review of modeling studies.PLoS computational biology · 2026Pooled it
- Infectious Disease Modelling of HIV Prevention Interventions: A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis of Compartmental Models.PharmacoEconomics · 2023Pooled it
- Factors associated with vaccination completion and retention among HIV negative female sex workers enrolled in a simulated vaccine efficacy trial in Kampala, Uganda.BMC infectious diseases · 2019Trial
- Understanding social context in HIV and drug use via community-informed computational modeling: SILOS study protocol.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Medical chart-reported alcohol consumption, substance use, and mental health issues in association with HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) nonadherence among gay, bisexual, and other men-who-have-sex-with-men.BMC public health · 2024Article
- A Behavioral Economic Examination of Sexual Behaviors in the Era of Pre-exposure Prophylaxis via Explanatory Sequential Mixed Methods.Archives of sexual behavior · 2024Article
- Article
- Reviewing PrEP's Effect on STI Incidence Among Men Who Have sex with Men-Balancing Increased STI Screening and Potential Behavioral Sexual Risk Compensation.AIDS and behavior · 2021Article
- Projecting the number of new HIV infections to formulate the "Getting to Zero" strategy in Illinois, USA.Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE · 2021Article
- Risk compensation after HIV-1 vaccination may accelerate viral adaptation and reduce cost-effectiveness: a modeling study.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Evidence of an Association of Increases in Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Coverage With Decreases in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Diagnosis Rates in the United States, 2012-2016.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2020Article
- Escape expectancies and sexualized substance use among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men.AIDS care · 2020Article
- Greater Levels of Self-Reported Adherence to Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) are Associated with Increased Condomless Sex Among Men Who Have Sex with Men.AIDS and behavior · 2020Article
- Egocentric sexual networks of men who have sex with men in the United States: Results from the ARTnet study.Epidemics · 2020Article
- A modeling framework to inform preexposure prophylaxis initiation and retention scale-up in the context of 'Getting to Zero' initiatives.AIDS (London, England) · 2019Article
- Recent HIV Risk Behavior and Partnership Type Predict HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Adherence in Men Who Have Sex with Men.AIDS patient care and STDs · 2019Article
- Sexual Risk Compensation in a Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Demonstration Study Among Individuals at Risk of HIV.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2019Article
- Progress and pitfalls in measuring HIV preexposure prophylaxis coverage in the United States.Annals of epidemiology · 2018Article
- Elimination prospects of the Dutch HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in the era of preexposure prophylaxis.AIDS (London, England) · 2018Article
- Potential Impact of HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis Among Black and White Adolescent Sexual Minority Males.American journal of public health · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesRisk compensation (RC) could reduce or offset the biological prevention benefits of HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among those at substantial risk of infection, including men who have sex with men (MSM). We investigated the potential extent and causal mechanisms through which RC could impact HIV transmission at the population and individual levels.
methodsUsing a stochastic network-based mathematical model of HIV transmission dynamics among MSM in the United States, we simulated RC as a reduction in the probability of condom use after initiating PrEP, with heterogeneity by PrEP adherence profiles and partnership type in which RC occurred. Outcomes were changes to population-level HIV incidence and individual-level acquisition risk.
resultsWhen RC was limited to MSM highly/moderately adherent to PrEP, 100% RC (full replacement of condoms) resulted in a 2% relative decline in incidence compared to no RC, but an 8% relative increase in infection risk for MSM on PrEP. This resulted from confounding by indication: RC increased the number of MSM indicated for PrEP as a function of more condomless anal intercourse among men otherwise not indicated for PrEP; this led to an increased PrEP uptake and subsequent decline in incidence.
conclusionsRC is unlikely to decrease the prevention impact of PrEP, and in some cases RC may be counterintuitively beneficial at the population level. This depended on PrEP uptake scaling with behavioral indications. Due to the increased acquisition risk associated with RC, however, clinicians should continue to support PrEP as a supplement rather than replacement of condoms.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.