Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28051125›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2017

Reconstruction of Rift Valley fever transmission dynamics in Madagascar: estimation of force of infection from seroprevalence surveys using Bayesian modelling.

Marie-Marie Olive, Vladimir Grosbois, Annelise Tran, Lalaina Arivony Nomenjanahary, Mihaja Rakotoarinoro, Soa-Fy Andriamandimby, Christophe Rogier, Jean-Michel Heraud, Veronique Chevalier

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  13. Environmental limits of Rift Valley fever revealed using ecoepidemiological mechanistic models.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2018
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Marie-Marie OliveCIRAD, Animal and Integrated Risk Management (AGIRs) Unit, Montpellier, France.
Vladimir GrosboisCIRAD, Animal and Integrated Risk Management (AGIRs) Unit, Montpellier, France.
Annelise TranCIRAD, Animal and Integrated Risk Management (AGIRs) Unit, Montpellier, France.
Lalaina Arivony NomenjanaharyInstitut Pasteur de Madagascar, Virology Unit, Antananarivo, Madagascar.
Mihaja RakotoarinoroInstitut Pasteur de Madagascar, Virology Unit, Antananarivo, Madagascar.
Soa-Fy AndriamandimbyInstitut Pasteur de Madagascar, Virology Unit, Antananarivo, Madagascar.
Christophe RogierInstitut Pasteur de Madagascar, Direction, Madagascar.
Jean-Michel HeraudInstitut Pasteur de Madagascar, Virology Unit, Antananarivo, Madagascar.
Veronique ChevalierCIRAD, Animal and Integrated Risk Management (AGIRs) Unit, Montpellier, France.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The force of infection (FOI) is one of the key parameters describing the dynamics of transmission of vector-borne diseases. Following the occurrence of two major outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Madagascar in 1990-91 and 2008-09, recent studies suggest that the pattern of RVF virus (RVFV) transmission differed among the four main eco-regions (East, Highlands, North-West and South-West). Using Bayesian hierarchical models fitted to serological data from cattle of known age collected during two surveys (2008 and 2014), we estimated RVF FOI and described its variations over time and space in Madagascar. We show that the patterns of RVFV transmission strongly differed among the eco-regions. In the North-West and Highlands regions, these patterns were synchronous with a high intensity in mid-2007/mid-2008. In the East and South-West, the peaks of transmission were later, between mid-2008 and mid-2010. In the warm and humid northwestern eco-region favorable to mosquito populations, RVFV is probably transmitted all year-long at low-level during inter-epizootic period allowing its maintenance and being regularly introduced in the Highlands through ruminant trade. The RVF surveillance of animals of the northwestern region could be used as an early warning indicator of an increased risk of RVF outbreak in Madagascar.

Indexed as

AnimalsBayes TheoremCattleCulicidaeDisease OutbreaksMadagascarMosquito VectorsRift Valley FeverRift Valley fever virusSeroepidemiologic Studies

Identifiers

PMID28051125
PMCPMC5209714

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.