Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27994231›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2016

Disease surveillance based on Internet-based linear models: an Australian case study of previously unmodeled infection diseases.

Florian Rohart, Gabriel J Milinovich, Simon M R Avril, Kim-Anh Lê Cao, Shilu Tong, Wenbiao Hu

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Time Series Analysis and Forecasting with Automated Machine Learning on a National ICD-10 Database.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Predicting Infectious Disease Using Deep Learning and Big Data.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2018
    Article
  12. National Communicable Disease Surveillance System: A review on Information and Organizational Structures in Developed Countries.Acta informatica medica : AIM : journal of the Society for Medical Informatics of Bosnia & Herzegovina : casopis Drustva za medicinsku informatiku BiH · 2017
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Florian RohartThe University of Queensland Diamantina Institute, The University of Queensland, Translational Research Institute, Woolloongabba, 4102, QLD, Australia.
Gabriel J MilinovichSchool of Medicine, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, 4072, QLD, Australia.
Simon M R AvrilFreelance Developer, The Gap, 4061, QLD, Australia.
Kim-Anh Lê CaoThe University of Queensland Diamantina Institute, The University of Queensland, Translational Research Institute, Woolloongabba, 4102, QLD, Australia.
Shilu TongSchool of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, 4056, QLD, Australia.
Wenbiao HuSchool of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, 4056, QLD, Australia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Effective disease surveillance is critical to the functioning of health systems. Traditional approaches are, however, limited in their ability to deliver timely information. Internet-based surveillance systems are a promising approach that may circumvent many of the limitations of traditional health surveillance systems and provide more intelligence on cases of infection, including cases from those that do not use the healthcare system. Infectious disease surveillance systems built on Internet search metrics have been shown to produce accurate estimates of disease weeks before traditional systems and are an economically attractive approach to surveillance; they are, however, also prone to error under certain circumstances. This study sought to explore previously unmodeled diseases by investigating the link between Google Trends search metrics and Australian weekly notification data. We propose using four alternative disease modelling strategies based on linear models that studied the length of the training period used for model construction, determined the most appropriate lag for search metrics, used wavelet transformation for denoising data and enabled the identification of key search queries for each disease. Out of the twenty-four diseases assessed with Australian data, our nowcasting results highlighted promise for two diseases of international concern, Ross River virus and pneumococcal disease.

Indexed as

InternetModels, BiologicalPopulation SurveillanceAustraliaCommunicable DiseasesHumansLinear ModelsStatistics, Nonparametric

Identifiers

PMID27994231
PMCPMC5172376

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.