ArticleEmerging infectious diseases2017
Modeling Tool for Decision Support during Early Days of an Anthrax Event.
Article in Emerging infectious diseases, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Anthrax toxins exacerbate sepsis-induced coagulopathy and endothelial dysfunction in a baboon model of anthrax.Journal of thrombosis and haemostasis : JTH · 2026Article
- Infectious bacteria as biological warfare agents: mechanisms, epidemiological threats, and defense strategies.Frontiers in bioengineering and biotechnology · 2026Review
- Mathematical models and analysis tools for risk assessment of unnatural epidemics: a scoping review.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Decontamination ofApplied biosafety : journal of the American Biological Safety Association · 2021Article
- Best practice assessment of disease modelling for infectious disease outbreaks.Epidemiology and infection · 2018Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Health officials lack field-implementable tools for forecasting the effects that a large-scale release of Bacillus anthracis spores would have on public health and hospitals. We created a modeling tool (combining inhalational anthrax caseload projections based on initial case reports, effects of variable postexposure prophylaxis campaigns, and healthcare facility surge capacity requirements) to project hospitalizations and casualties from a newly detected inhalation anthrax event, and we examined the consequences of intervention choices. With only 3 days of case counts, the model can predict final attack sizes for simulated Sverdlovsk-like events (1979 USSR) with sufficient accuracy for decision making and confirms the value of early postexposure prophylaxis initiation. According to a baseline scenario, hospital treatment volume peaks 15 days after exposure, deaths peak earlier (day 5), and recovery peaks later (day 23). This tool gives public health, hospital, and emergency planners scenario-specific information for developing quantitative response plans for this threat.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.