Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27982119›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2016

Declining Prevalence of Disease Vectors Under Climate Change.

Luis E Escobar, Daniel Romero-Alvarez, Renato Leon, Manuel A Lepe-Lopez, Meggan E Craft, Mercy J Borbor-Cordova, Jens-Christian Svenning

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 38 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
38citing papers in PubMed
7.0field-weighted citation impact, top 3% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

38 citing papers in PubMed, 78 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Review
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  10. Spatiotemporal dynamics ofFrontiers in microbiology · 2025
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review.Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · 2024
    Article
  14. Role of Non-Residential Larval Habitats inLife (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 6 institutions in 4 countries.

Luis E EscobarDepartment of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, 55108, USA.
Daniel Romero-AlvarezUnit of Molecular Parasitology &Tropical Medicine, Centro de Biomedicina, School of Medicine, Universidad Central del Ecuador, Quito, Ecuador.
Renato LeonLaboratorio de Entomología Médica &Medicina Tropical, Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Quito, Ecuador.
Manuel A Lepe-LopezFacultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala, Guatemala City, Guatemala.
Meggan E CraftDepartment of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, St Paul, Minnesota, 55108, USA.
Mercy J Borbor-CordovaFaculty of Marine Sciences, Biology, Oceanic Sciences and Natural Resources, Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, Guayaquil, Ecuador.
Jens-Christian SvenningSection for Ecoinformatics &Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark.
University of Minnesota · USAarhus University · DKCentral University of Ecuador · ECEscuela Superior Politecnica del Litoral · ECUniversidad San Francisco de Quito · ECUniversity of San Carlos of Guatemala · GT

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

More than half of the world population is at risk of vector-borne diseases including dengue fever, chikungunya, zika, yellow fever, leishmaniasis, chagas disease, and malaria, with highest incidences in tropical regions. In Ecuador, vector-borne diseases are present from coastal and Amazonian regions to the Andes Mountains; however, a detailed characterization of the distribution of their vectors has never been carried out. We estimate the distribution of 14 vectors of the above vector-borne diseases under present-day and future climates. Our results consistently suggest that climate warming is likely threatening some vector species with extinction, locally or completely. These results suggest that climate change could reduce the burden of specific vector species. Other vector species are likely to shift and constrain their geographic range to the highlands in Ecuador potentially affecting novel areas and populations. These forecasts show the need for development of early prevention strategies for vector species currently absent in areas projected as suitable under future climate conditions. Informed interventions could reduce the risk of human exposure to vector species with distributional shifts, in response to current and future climate changes. Based on the mixed effects of future climate on human exposure to disease vectors, we argue that research on vector-borne diseases should be cross-scale and include climatic, demographic, and landscape factors, as well as forces facilitating disease transmission at fine scales.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeAnimalsArea Under CurveChikungunya FeverDengueHumansInsect VectorsPrevalenceRiskROC CurveYellow Fever

Identifiers

PMID27982119
PMCPMC5159793
OpenAlexW2565855371

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.