ArticleGastroenterology2017
A Clinical Prediction Model to Assess Risk for Pancreatic Cancer Among Patients With New-Onset Diabetes.
Article in Gastroenterology, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 111 papers, 9 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
111 citing papers in PubMed, 9 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Quantifying Weight Loss Prior to Pancreatic Cancer Diagnosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Cancer medicine · 2026Pooled it
- Research trends and knowledge structure of pancreatic cancer and type 2 diabetes mellitus research: a two-decade CiteSpace analysis.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2026Pooled it
- Performance of risk prediction models for pancreatic cancer in patients with new-onset diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in oncology · 2026Pooled it
- Distinct prognostic impact of diabetes subtypes, metformin use, and glycemic control in pancreatic cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.Frontiers in oncology · 2026Pooled it
- A Systematic Review of Cost-Effectiveness Studies on Pancreatic Cancer Screening.Current oncology (Toronto, Ont.) · 2025Pooled it
- Machine Learning Models for Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Using Electronic Health Record Data-A Systematic Review and Assessment.The American journal of gastroenterology · 2024Pooled it
- Using proton pump inhibitors increases the risk of hepato-biliary-pancreatic cancer. A systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2022Pooled it
- Body mass index and cancer risk in patients with type 2 diabetes: a dose-response meta-analysis of cohort studies.Scientific reports · 2021Pooled it
- Identification of Key Genes Involved in Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma with Diabetes Mellitus Based on Gene Expression Profiling Analysis.Pathology oncology research : POR · 2021Pooled it
- Article
- A Clinical Score to Identify Individuals at High Risk of Pancreatic Cancer in the General Population.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Prediagnostic prescription patterns in pancreatic cancer: a retrospective primary care cohort study.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2026Article
- New-Onset Diabetes and Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: Implications for Early Recognition and Clinical Management.Diabetes/metabolism research and reviews · 2026Review
- Diabetes and Cancer-Specific Survival: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study Across Multiple Cancer Sites.Cancer reports (Hoboken, N.J.) · 2026Article
- Article
- Leveraging the Electronic Health Record for Early Detection of Pancreatic Cancer Among 9.4 Million US Veterans.Clinical and translational gastroenterology · 2026Article
- Decision support tools for pancreatic cancer detection: external validation in Australian primary care - a retrospective cohort study.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2026Article
- Clinical Decision Support Tool for Early Pancreatic Cancer Detection in Primary Care: Simulation Study.JMIR formative research · 2026Article
- Machine learning-based clinical prediction model and multi-omics integration for assessing pancreatic cancer risk in new-onset diabetes.Journal of translational medicine · 2026Article
- Cost-Effectiveness and Clinical Utility of Pancreatic Cancer Non-Invasive Test in New-Onset Diabetes.ClinicoEconomics and outcomes research : CEOR · 2026Article
51 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
BACKGROUND &
aimsApproximately 50% of all patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDA) develop diabetes mellitus before their cancer diagnosis. Screening individuals with new-onset diabetes might allow earlier diagnosis of PDA. We sought to develop and validate a PDA risk prediction model to identify high-risk individuals among those with new-onset diabetes.
methodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study in a population representative database from the United Kingdom. Individuals with incident diabetes after the age of 35 years and 3 or more years of follow-up after diagnosis of diabetes were eligible for inclusion. Candidate predictors consisted of epidemiologic and clinical characteristics available at the time of diabetes diagnosis. Variables with P values <.25 in the univariable analyses were evaluated using backward stepwise approach. Model discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Calibration was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results were internally validated using a bootstrapping procedure.
resultsWe analyzed data from 109,385 patients with new-onset diabetes. Among them, 390 (0.4%) were diagnosed with PDA within 3 years. The final model (area under the curve, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.89) included age, body mass index, change in body mass index, smoking, use of proton pump inhibitors, and anti-diabetic medications, as well as levels of hemoglobin A1C, cholesterol, hemoglobin, creatinine, and alkaline phosphatase. Bootstrapping validation showed negligible optimism. If the predicted risk threshold for definitive PDA screening was set at 1% over 3 years, only 6.19% of the new-onset diabetes population would undergo definitive screening, which would identify patients with PDA with 44.7% sensitivity, 94.0% specificity, and a positive predictive value of 2.6%.
conclusionsWe developed a risk model based on widely available clinical parameters to help identify patients with new-onset diabetes who might benefit from PDA screening.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.