Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27923060›Full record

ArticlePLoS computational biology2016

The Limitations of Model-Based Experimental Design and Parameter Estimation in Sloppy Systems.

Andrew White, Malachi Tolman, Howard D Thames, Hubert Rodney Withers, Kathy A Mason, Mark K Transtrum

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PLoS computational biology, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed.

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  13. Cancer Explant Models.Current topics in microbiology and immunology · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Andrew WhiteDepartment of Physics & Astronomy, Brigham Young University, Provo, Utah, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0001-7249-8950
Malachi TolmanDepartment of Physics & Astronomy, Brigham Young University, Provo, Utah, United States of America.
Howard D ThamesDepartment of Biostatistics, UT MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas, United States of America.
Hubert Rodney WithersDepartment of Experimental Radiation Oncology, UT MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas, United States of America.
Kathy A MasonDepartment of Experimental Radiation Oncology, UT MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas, United States of America.
Mark K TranstrumDepartment of Physics & Astronomy, Brigham Young University, Provo, Utah, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0001-9529-9399

Funding

Tumor Evolution and Metastasis ProgramP30CA016672 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF TX MD ANDERSON CAN CTR · PI Fabien Delerue · 1985 to 2026
$290.8M
NCI NIH HHS P30 CA016672
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We explore the relationship among experimental design, parameter estimation, and systematic error in sloppy models. We show that the approximate nature of mathematical models poses challenges for experimental design in sloppy models. In many models of complex biological processes it is unknown what are the relevant physical mechanisms that must be included to explain system behaviors. As a consequence, models are often overly complex, with many practically unidentifiable parameters. Furthermore, which mechanisms are relevant/irrelevant vary among experiments. By selecting complementary experiments, experimental design may inadvertently make details that were ommitted from the model become relevant. When this occurs, the model will have a large systematic error and fail to give a good fit to the data. We use a simple hyper-model of model error to quantify a model's discrepancy and apply it to two models of complex biological processes (EGFR signaling and DNA repair) with optimally selected experiments. We find that although parameters may be accurately estimated, the discrepancy in the model renders it less predictive than it was in the sloppy regime where systematic error is small. We introduce the concept of a sloppy system-a sequence of models of increasing complexity that become sloppy in the limit of microscopic accuracy. We explore the limits of accurate parameter estimation in sloppy systems and argue that identifying underlying mechanisms controlling system behavior is better approached by considering a hierarchy of models of varying detail rather than focusing on parameter estimation in a single model.

Indexed as

Models, BiologicalResearch DesignAlgorithmsAnimalsDNA RepairErbB ReceptorsKineticsMiceSignal TransductionWhole-Body IrradiationErbB Receptors

Identifiers

PMID27923060
PMCPMC5140062

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.