ArticleEnvironmental health : a global access science source2016
Low dose radiation risks for women surviving the a-bombs in Japan: generalized additive model.
Article in Environmental health : a global access science source, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Melatonin in Wine and Beer: Beneficial Effects.Molecules (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Review
- Melatonin, a Full Service Anti-Cancer Agent: Inhibition of Initiation, Progression and Metastasis.International journal of molecular sciences · 2017Review
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Abstract
backgroundAnalyses of cancer mortality and incidence in Japanese A-bomb survivors have been used to estimate radiation risks, which are generally higher for women. Relative Risk (RR) is usually modelled as a linear function of dose. Extrapolation from data including high doses predicts small risks at low doses. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) are flexible methods for modelling non-linear behaviour.
methodsGAMs are applied to cancer incidence in female low dose subcohorts, using anonymous public data for the 1958 - 1998 Life Span Study, to test for linearity, explore interactions, adjust for the skewed dose distribution, examine significance below 100 mGy, and estimate risks at 10 mGy.
resultsFor all solid cancer incidence, RR estimated from 0 - 100 mGy and 0 - 20 mGy subcohorts is significantly raised. The response tapers above 150 mGy. At low doses, RR increases with age-at-exposure and decreases with time-since-exposure, the preferred covariate. Using the empirical cumulative distribution of dose improves model fit, and capacity to detect non-linear responses. RR is elevated over wide ranges of covariate values. Results are stable under simulation, or when removing exceptional data cells, or adjusting neutron RBE. Estimates of Excess RR at 10 mGy using the cumulative dose distribution are 10 - 45 times higher than extrapolations from a linear model fitted to the full cohort. Below 100 mGy, quasipoisson models find significant effects for all solid, squamous, uterus, corpus, and thyroid cancers, and for respiratory cancers when age-at-exposure > 35 yrs. Results for the thyroid are compatible with studies of children treated for tinea capitis, and Chernobyl survivors. Results for the uterus are compatible with studies of UK nuclear workers and the Techa River cohort.
conclusionNon-linear models find large, significant cancer risks for Japanese women exposed to low dose radiation from the atomic bombings. The risks should be reflected in protection standards.
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