ArticlePLoS computational biology2016
Malaria Elimination Campaigns in the Lake Kariba Region of Zambia: A Spatial Dynamical Model.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed.
- Treatment Coverage Estimation for Mass Drug Administration for Malaria with Dihydroartemisinin-Piperaquine in Southern Province, Zambia.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2020Trial
- Adherence to Mass Drug Administration with Dihydroartemisinin-Piperaquine andThe American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2020Trial
- Modelling geographical variation in the determinants of childhood malaria in Malawi using geographically weighted regression.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Archetype-based stratification to inform sub-national tailoring of malaria interventions in Zambia.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Optimizing the impact of a novel spatial repellent on malaria incidence in Western Kenya.Epidemiology and infection · 2026Article
- Freedom from infection: enhancing decision-making for malaria elimination.BMJ global health · 2024Article
- Application of mathematical modelling to inform national malaria intervention planning in Nigeria.Malaria journal · 2023Article
- National-scale simulation of human movement in a spatially coupled individual-based model of malaria in Burkina Faso.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Prevalence, characteristics and risk factors of imported and local malaria cases in North-Western Province, Zambia: a cross-sectional study.Malaria journal · 2020Article
- Comparing prioritization strategies for delivering indoor residual spray (IRS) implementation, using a network approach.Malaria journal · 2020Article
- Recent Travel History andThe American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2020Article
- Vector genetics, insecticide resistance and gene drives: An agent-based modeling approach to evaluate malaria transmission and elimination.PLoS computational biology · 2020Article
- Article
- Applied mathematical modelling to inform national malaria policies, strategies and operations in Tanzania.Malaria journal · 2020Article
- Simulating the council-specific impact of anti-malaria interventions: A tool to support malaria strategic planning in Tanzania.PloS one · 2020Article
- Reducing malaria burden and accelerating elimination with long-lasting systemic insecticides: a modelling study of three potential use cases.Malaria journal · 2019Article
- Model selection for hybrid dynamical systems via sparse regression.Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2019Article
- Mapping malaria by combining parasite genomic and epidemiologic data.BMC medicine · 2018Article
- Seasonality and heterogeneity of malaria transmission determine success of interventions in high-endemic settings: a modeling study.BMC infectious diseases · 2018Article
- A bibliometric analysis of global research output on health and human rights (1900-2017).Global health research and policy · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
As more regions approach malaria elimination, understanding how different interventions interact to reduce transmission becomes critical. The Lake Kariba area of Southern Province, Zambia, is part of a multi-country elimination effort and presents a particular challenge as it is an interconnected region of variable transmission intensities. In 2012-13, six rounds of mass test-and-treat drug campaigns were carried out in the Lake Kariba region. A spatial dynamical model of malaria transmission in the Lake Kariba area, with transmission and climate modeled at the village scale, was calibrated to the 2012-13 prevalence survey data, with case management rates, insecticide-treated net usage, and drug campaign coverage informed by surveillance. The model captured the spatio-temporal trends of decline and rebound in malaria prevalence in 2012-13 at the village scale. Various interventions implemented between 2016-22 were simulated to compare their effects on reducing regional transmission and achieving and maintaining elimination through 2030. Simulations predict that elimination requires sustaining high coverage with vector control over several years. When vector control measures are well-implemented, targeted mass drug campaigns in high-burden areas further increase the likelihood of elimination, although drug campaigns cannot compensate for insufficient vector control. If infections are regularly imported from outside the region into highly receptive areas, vector control must be maintained within the region until importations cease. Elimination in the Lake Kariba region is possible, although human movement both within and from outside the region risk damaging the success of elimination programs.
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